Cuban News December 15 2006

Castro relinquished power for the first time in 47 years after surgery July 31 for an undisclosed intestinal disorder. His brother, Raul, has assumed Castro's duties, but Cuban authorities have repeatedly insisted that he is recovering and eventually will return to office. He was last seen in an Oct. 28 video, shown on Cuban national television, in which he appeared gaunt and weak and warned that his convalescence would be lengthy.

The Cuban leader did not show up as anticipated at a Dec. 2 national celebration in Havana scheduled to commemorate his 80th birthday and the 50th anniversary of the Cuban revolution. In a brief speech at the event, Raul Castro imparted no message from his brother but said that Cuba is willing to open negotiations with the United States "to settle the long U.S.-Cuba disagreement."

In rejecting the offer this week, Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon told reporters that the Bush administration will deal with Cuba's Communist government only when it shows a commitment to democracy. During the period of uncertainty under Raul Castro, Shannon said, "the regime has actually become harder and more orthodox and is not in a position to signal in any meaningful way what direction it will take post-Fidel."

Congressional advocates of easing long-standing U.S. sanctions against Cuba are scheduled to fly to the island today for a three-day visit exploring potential policy changes under Raul Castro. The bipartisan group of 10 is the largest congressional delegation to visit Cuba.

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Gallup poll: 47% of Cubans approve of Castro regime; An independent poll of Cubans shows they want more freedom and opportunities, but many still support Fidel and Raúl Castro. CUBA

BY PABLO BACHELET

pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

15 December 2006

The Miami Herald

WASHINGTON

A rare independent poll of Cubans by the U.S.-based Gallup company shows Cubans on the island want more freedom and economic opportunities and support the Castro brothers by a seven-point margin.

The Gallup poll released Thursday showed that 47 percent of the Cubans polled approved the job performance of their leaders and 40 percent disapproved.

Gallup officials said they did not seek Cuban government permission for the poll, but that authorities made no effort to stop it.

The poll is only the second carried out by outsiders in Cuba since 1994, when the Miami Herald commissioned CID-Gallup, the Costa Rican affiliate of Gallup, to carry out a similar poll.

Polling in Cuba is considered sensitive because the communist government suppresses dissent, sometimes brutally. The government monopolizes the media and only the Communist Party is legal.

The most recent survey was conducted Sept. 1-15, well after Fidel Castro had handed power to his brother Raúl following surgery. Castro is reported to be suffering from terminal cancer, and has not appeared in public since July.

The executive summary of the poll -- part of a broader project comparing attitudes in some 130 countries, which Gallup plans to release in portions -- describes the results as a ``fascinating portrayal of a populace living with the paradoxes of a communist regime.''

Only one in four Cubans declared to be satisfied with their levels of personal freedom. By contrast, four out of every five Latin Americans said they were satisfied with their personal freedom.

Despite a barrage of criticism of U.S. policy from Cuban leaders and a four-decade-old embargo, 44 percent of Cubans said they considered the United States an ''ideal partner'' for more trade -- far ahead of 17 percent for second-place China and 15 percent for Venezuela.

Eric Nielsen, a spokesman for Gallup, said Cubans may be responding to their relatives' description of America as a land of opportunity and the Havana government's assertion that more U.S. trade would improve the island's lot.

Only 42 percent of Cubans believed they could get ahead by working hard, far less than the 77 percent of Latin America who held that opinion. But Cubans held their health and educational systems in high regard. For instance, 96 percent said healthcare was available to all regardless of income, compared with 42 percent who felt the same way in Latin America.

Cubans also seemed less happy than their Latin American peers, with 62 percent saying they laughed or smiled a lot, compared with 82 percent for the rest of the region. But Cubans overwhelmingly used positive terms like creativity, friendliness and optimism to describe themselves.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey was carried out by a team of Central American supervisors and Cuban college students who contacted 600 people in Havana and 400 in Santiago aged 15 or older. The results were e-mailed from Internet cafes every evening and the original documents were then burned to ensure they did not fall into the hands of authorities. Poor infrastructure made it impossible to conduct the survey in the rest of Cuba, organizers said.

Gallup officials said pollsters found that despite the government controls, Cubans were still eager to respond to questioners, who spent up to one hour in each home.

To maintain a low profile, the poll takers avoided the homes of the neighborhood chiefs of Cuba's notorious Committees for the Protection of the Revolution.

The Miami Herald's CID/Gallup poll in 1994 showed that only 3 percent of those surveyed identified politics as Cuba's main problem, 38 percent said freedom was the most important value for society and 50 percent chose equality.

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Poll: 1 In 4 Cubans OK With Freedoms (Klug, AP)
Friday, December 15, 2006
AP
By Foster Klug
About one-quarter of Cubans interviewed in the island's two biggest cities are satisfied with their freedom to choose what they do with their lives, according to a poll released Thursday.
When asked about the job performance of Cuba's leaders, about 40 percent of those surveyed said they disapproved, the Gallup Poll found. Not quite half gave their approval. The poll surveyed 600 people in Havana and 400 in Santiago.
The survey comes as Cuba is at a crossroads. Leader Fidel Castro is ill and questions abound about whether he will recover and what will happen if he does not.
Castro's autocratic rule has fueled widespread criticism, though he has supporters, including Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
Gallup conducted the Cuba survey only in two cities because of the difficulty in getting around the island and because of the absence of a reliable way to buy food and provisions, said Carlos Denton, president of CID Gallup Central America.
The results are not meant to be representative of Cuba's more than 11 million citizens - only a look at those nearly 3 million people living in Havana and Santiago, Gallup officials said.
According to the survey:
_When asked about the "ideal partner" for Cuba to increase commercial ties with, the United States was most commonly mentioned, followed by China and Venezuela. The U.S. government maintains a decades-old trade and travel embargo against Cuba.
_Nearly all of those interviewed said they thought Cuban health care was accessible to any person who needed it, regardless of their economic status.
_Nearly all said Cubans who wanted to study have access to education, regardless of their economic situation.
_Only about 40 percent said Cubans can get ahead by working hard.
_About two-thirds of the respondents who had jobs said they were satisfied with them.
Ten people from other Latin American countries conducted the interviews along with 10 Cubans, mostly college students Gallup had previously dealt with. The workers tried to stay away from the homes of people responsible for reporting on neighborhood activities to the government. Such homes, Gallup said, are on nearly every block.
The interviews were not monitored by the Cuban government, the polling group said, and no incentives to answer questions were given to respondents. Gallup said it did not request governmental permission to conduct the survey.
The poll workers entered their results daily in computers at the Internet cafes that have sprung up to cater to tourists. They burned their data each night to avoid having the results recovered by the government.
Jesus Rios, Gallup's director of research for Latin America, said that the questions were the same ones his company uses in similar polls all over the world and were not customized for Cuba.
The poll was conducted Sept. 1-15 with residents above the age of 15. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points for the total sample.

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Poll finds Cubans want more freedom

Washington, Dec 14 (EFE).- Three-quarters of Cubans would like more freedom to make choices about their own lives and around 40 percent disapprove of the rule of the Castro brothers, according to survey results released Thursday.

The poll was conducted in September by CID Gallup Central America among 1,000 people 15 and up in the island's two biggest cities, Havana and Santiago de Cuba.

Only one in four of those surveyed expressed satisfaction with the level of personal freedom in the Communist-ruled country, though two-thirds of those with jobs said they were satisfied with their work.

Overwhelming majorities said that Cubans enjoy universal access to education and health care, and most praised the government's record on fighting crime.

Regarding the government itself, 40 percent said they disapproved of the leadership of Fidel and Raul Castro, while 47 percent voiced approval for the nearly 48-year-old regime.

In July, the octogenarian Fidel "provisionally" handed over power to his younger brother and designated heir while he recuperated from intestinal surgery to address a still-undisclosed illness.

Authorities insist the leader's recovery is on track, but he has not appeared in public since before falling ill and the most recent photographs of him date from October.

CID Gallup said the poll was not meant to be representative of all of Cuba's 11 million people.

The survey - Gallup's first on the island since 1994 - was limited to Havana and Santiago for logistical reasons, the firm said, adding that Cuban authorities did not obstruct the work of the pollsters.

When asked which country would be the "ideal partner" for enhanced commercial ties, most Cubans surveyed cited the United States, followed by China and Venezuela.

Washington has maintained an economic embargo against Cuba since 1962. EFE

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U.S. legislators seek to engage Raul Castro

By Anthony Boadle

HAVANA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Leading advocates of easing sanctions against Cuba in the U.S. Congress will fly to Havana on Friday to assess the situation since ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother Raul in July.

The largest Congressional delegation to visit Communist-run Cuba has asked to meet with acting president Raul Castro, who two weeks ago said he was open to talks with Washington.

The Bush administration, which opposes a "dynastic succession" from one Castro brother to the other, has rejected talks in the absence of democratic reform to Cuba's one-party state.

Cuba watchers said a meeting between the legislators and Raul Castro could mark a turning point in a hostile relationship that dates back to the start of the Cold War.

The three-day visit by 10 Republican and Democratic representatives comes amid heightened speculation that Fidel Castro, 80 and in power since 1959, is close to death.

"They are interested in talking to Cuban officials about the economic and political situation since the hand-over of power on July 31," said a source in the delegation.

The delegation is headed by Jeff Flake, a Republican from Arizona, and William Delahunt, a Democrat from Massachusetts, who have said they will work to relax a ban on travel and a cap on family remittances to Cuba in Congress next year.

They favor engagement and trade with Cuba rather than sanctions as the best U.S. policy to foster change on the island.

NEW ERA?

"The Flake-Delahunt delegation, especially if the members meet with Raul Castro, may well be the first chapter in a new era of bilateral relations," said Julia Sweig, Cuba expert at the Council for Foreign Relations think tank in Washington.

Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon, the top U.S. diplomat for Latin America, on Wednesday criticized a greater crackdown on dissent since the younger Castro took over.

"The regime has actually become harder and more orthodox and is not in a position to signal in any meaningful way what direction it will take post-Fidel," said Shannon.

A rare Gallup poll released on Thursday shows Cubans are divided on their country's Communist leadership and frustrated by the country's lack of freedom and economic opportunity.

Only 25 percent of Cubans interviewed by the Gallup Organization said they were satisfied with the freedom they have to choose what to do with their lives, the lowest figure among 100 countries surveyed by the polling firm.

Cuba responded on Thursday to Shannon's comments by attacking Bush administration efforts to undermine the only communist state in the Western hemisphere with millions of dollars in "misspent" funding for dissidents it labels U.S.-paid "mercenaries."

"The government and people will guarantee the total failure of those plans to encourage subversion and counter-revolution in our country," the ruling Communist Party newspaper Granma said in an editorial.

The U.S. Interest Section in Havana, which operates under the Swiss flag in the absence of formal diplomatic ties, has provided dissidents with short-wave radios, books, writing materials and access to the Internet, but denies giving any money.

Granma pointed to a report by the General Accounting Office of the U.S. Congress that said some of the $73.6 million intended to fund dissent and broadcasts to Cuba between 1996 and 2005 was used to buy cashmere sweaters, Godiva chocolates, video games and Harry Potter novels.

The audit was ordered by congressmen Flake and Delahunt.

"With the impending demise of Fidel, the recent Democratic victory in the House and Senate, and the Bush administration coming to an end, no one can doubt that the politics of US-Cuba relations are on the verge of dramatic change," said Dan Erikson, of the Inter-American Dialogue policy group.

Sweig agreed. A Democrat-controlled Congress "is positioned to jump start a new debate in Washington," she said.

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US lawmakers head to Cuba after Raul Castro extends olive branch

WASHINGTON, Dec 14, 2006 (AFP) -

Ten lawmakers, believed to be the largest US legislative group to visit communist-ruled Cuba, were to depart for Havana Friday amid rising uncertainty over ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro's health.

"They are leaving on Friday and come back on Sunday. Ten members are going," said Sonia Melendez, spokeswoman for California Democrat Hilda Solis, one of the delegation's members. Among the others are Arizona Republican Jeff Flake and Massachusetts Democrat Bill Delahunt.

The 10 were due to meet with Cuban assembly speaker Ricardo Alarcon, also the top Cuban official for US affairs; Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque; central bank president Francisco Soberon; and Minister of Basic Industry and Communist Party official Yadira Garcia, Cuban sources said.

They will also be greeted by Jaime Ortega, the archbishop of Havana.

The United States and Cuba do not have full diplomatic relations, and Washington has an economic embargo on the only one-party communist state in the Americas.

"We have not many details on the agenda," Solis's spokeswoman added.

But the timing for the visit was potentially interesting.

Fidel Castro, 80, handed over the reins of power on July 31 to his brother Raul Castro, the army chief.

Raul Castro has reached out to the United States more actively than his brother in the past four months, calling for negotiations.

The United States so far has said it is not interested in negotiating until there is a political opening.

Wednesday, the top US diplomat for Latin America indicated that the United States had yet to find a reformer in the communist Cuban government, but did not flatly rule out dialogue with Havana in a context of political opening.

"We have not been able to detect there the emergence of any political figure that could be reformist," said Tom Shannon, the State Department's top diplomat for Latin America.

"Once (Fidel Castro) goes, the successor government is going to have to chart out some kind of path into the future. There are no clear signals of what that path is going to be," Shannon added, noting: "We don't see any significant possibility of change of any kind until Fidel is gone."

Raul Castro, who has been filling in for his brother Fidel since the longtime Cuban president underwent intestinal surgery in July, made an appeal for talks with Washington on December 2 in a speech to troops in Havana honoring Fidel Castro's 80th birthday.

"Our engagement with Cuba has to be part of a change process that facilitates a democratic transition. We are attentive to what is happening in Cuba, to what would happen after Fidel Castro passes from the scene. When we engage, it has to be part of a democratic change," Shannon added.

Fidel Castro has not been seen in public since July 26, the day before his surgery.

With Castro ailing, the US Coast Guard is bracing for a mass migration to US shores from the Caribbean nation, just 144 kilometers (90 miles) across the Florida Straits.

Poring over a map of the region Tuesday ahead of an exercise in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, with the positions of a dozen ships marked off by flags, Coast Guard Rear Admiral David Kunkel said they had a clear mission: to stop the exodus.

Adding to the potential for a big influx: US law allows any Cuban who reaches US soil to stay, work and gain residency and expedited US citizenship.

Now, as Cuban defense chief Raul Castro leads Cuba in his brother's absence, the United States fears the controls on migration could fail.

If Cuba at any point allows its people take to the seas, chaos could ensue as some of the 1.25 million Cuban-Americans -- two-thirds of whom live in Florida -- head there to collect friends and relatives, while others in Cuba try to head for the United States.

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Cuba ban's critics hope hard line is softening; After years of setbacks, opponents of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba see a glimmer of optimism for Congress to change policy. CONGRESS

BY PABLO BACHELET

pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

15 December 2006

The Miami Herald

WASHINGTON

The Democrats' capture of Congress and Cuban leader Fidel Castro's illness have dramatically altered the battle lines over Cuba policy and given new hope to opponents of U.S. sanctions, analysts say.

A congressional delegation heading to Cuba today has drawn brisk interest from lawmakers and their staffs, and critics of the sanctions say that shows the legislative branch is keen on taking another look at Cuba.

''There's a reenergizing of the base of people who want to work to change this policy,'' said Mavis Anderson, head of the Cuba program for the Latin America Working Group, a left-leaning advocacy organization based in Washington. ``Outside of Congress, certainly people are excited that there may be some new openings. Inside the Congress, I think that will come.''

In recent years, President Bush has cut back everything from U.S. travel to bank transfers and gift packages to the island, meeting little resistance in a Republican-controlled Congress.

But now the ailing Castro is largely viewed as unlikely to return to power. Democrats, traditionally less inclined to back the sanctions against Cuba, are set to control Congress. Bush is looking more like a lame-duck leader and his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is leaving office in January.

PROGRAMS QUESTIONED

Adding to that perfect-storm scenario, a report by the watchdog Government Accountability Office last month questioned the efficiency of U.S. democracy programs to support dissidents on the island, giving more fuel to foes who argue that a change in policy is overdue.

''If you're a hard-liner on policy toward Cuba, things are not looking very good for you,'' said Tomas Bilbao, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a centrist nonpartisan group based in Miami and Washington.

Congressional interest in Cuba is growing as the island continues to chart its course in the post-Fidel Castro era.

Six Democrats and four Republicans signed up for the trip to Havana organized by the House International Relations Committee. The visit, the first since Castro fell ill in July, was an initiative of Arizona Republican Rep. Jeff Flake, a vocal supporter of more U.S. engagement with Cuba.

According to organizers, the congressional delegation has confirmed meetings with Cuban National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcón and Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, and may meet with interim leader Raúl Castro.

KEY ASPECTS

Few observers expect Congress to end the trade embargo on Cuba anytime soon.

But opponents are expected to challenge key portions of the Cuba policy, including funding levels for the South Florida-based Radio and TV Martí and the travel restrictions. Observers say the 2004 tightening of the travel restrictions -- Cuban Americans now can only go to the island once every three years instead of annually -- is especially vulnerable.

Several Democrats skeptical of Bush's Cuba policies will chair committees that will give them a platform on Cuba matters, including New York Rep. Charles Rangel on the Ways and Means Committee, Michigan Rep. John Conyers on the Judiciary Committee and Wisconsin Rep. David Obey on the Appropriations Committee.

On the Senate side, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is to head the Foreign Relations Committee and Sen. Max Baucus of Montana, who once held up Treasury Department nominations to protest restrictions on U.S. trade with Cuba, will chair the Finance Committee, according to a tally kept by Anderson's group.

''Obstructionists have been moved out of leadership in the Congress,'' the group said in a Nov. 28 e-mail to fellow activists. ``We have reason to be optimistic.''

But Cuba bills still need to pass the floor of both chambers, where supporters of the embargo believe members will be reluctant to change a Cuba policy when Havana may be on the eve of a historic shift because of Castro's illness.

''I am fully confident that, despite our reversals in Congress, U.S. sanctions will be kept on the Cuban dictatorship until a democratic transition is genuinely under way,'' said Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart, one of the staunchest defenders of Bush policies on Cuba. ``We have bipartisan solid support for Cuba's freedom in Congress, and George W. Bush is still president.''

The Latin America Working Group counts 182 representatives from both parties as firmly in the camp of favoring a change in Cuba policy, well short of the 218 needed to pass bills.

FRESHMAN CLASS

The big uncertainty is the 50-plus-member freshman class, dominated by Democrats. But congressional votes on Cuba tend to be muddy, as farm-state Republicans often vote for more trade, while many Democrats join Republican colleagues in keeping the restrictions on Havana.

The previous freshman class voted overwhelmingly against easing Cuba sanctions, and Albio Sires, a Cuban-American New Jersey Democrat just elected to the House, is expected to lobby against rolling back Cuba sanctions. The office of Lincoln Díaz-Balart has already begun reaching out to the freshman class with literature and invitations to briefings on Cuba-related issues, a staff member said.

On the Senate side, congressional aides say, Democratic Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada opposes easing sanctions, as do other key members such as Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., Mel Martinez, R-Fla., and Bob Menendez, D-N.J.

IN NO RUSH

So far, Democrats are not rushing to change the Cuba policy.

Rangel, on the Ways and Means Committee, remains committed to overturning the embargo, but his aides say he will move legislation only if a majority of the committee wants it. Rangel also said that he did not join the congressional delegation to Cuba because ''no matter how well-intended the trip is, it would seem as if we were surveying the grounds'' for a post-Fidel Castro Cuba.

Then there's the 2008 presidential elections, in which Democrats may be reluctant to anger Cuban-American voters in Florida by relaxing Cuba sanctions.

''The Cuba policy is based on the dream of both parties to capture the Cuban vote in Miami,'' said New York Democratic Rep. José Serrano, a firm proponent of more engagement with Havana.

Kevin Hall of the McClatchy News Service contributed to this report.

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Cuba vows to defy U.S. efforts for change on island

By VANESSA ARRINGTON

Associated Press Writer

14 December 2006

HAVANA (AP) - Cuba vowed to defy U.S. efforts for economic and political change on the island in a front-page editorial in the Communist Party's newspaper that also referred to Cuban dissidents as "mercenaries" and "counterrevolutionary puppies."

Members of the U.S. government "should not fool themselves," Thursday's editorial said. "The Cuban government and people will take charge, as they've done until now, of guaranteeing the complete failure of these plans ... to encourage the subversion and internal counterrevolution in our country," it said.

The editorial came on the eve of Friday's scheduled arrival in Cuba of a U.S. congressional delegation including Jeff Flake, of Arizona, and William Delahunt, of Massachusetts -- the two lawmakers who requested a study reviewing U.S. funds for Cuba programs. Both congressmen advocate ending the United States' decades-old trade and travel embargo against Cuba.

The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has adopted even stricter policies aimed at squeezing the island's economy and pushing out the communist leadership.

Cuba is facing uncertainty with the island's longtime leader Fidel Castro ailing and out of sight. The 80-year-old has not been seen since July, when he temporarily handed power over to his younger brother Raul Castro so he could recover from intestinal surgery.

The elder Castro's failure to show up at his own delayed birthday celebration this month has fueled speculation that he is more sick than originally thought. Cuba has warned the U.S. government against trying to take advantage of the moment and Raul Castro has repeated his brother's warning that the island is prepared to defend itself against any U.S. aggression.

The U.S. administration has dedicated US$80 million (euro60 million) to what it describes as the promotion of democracy in Cuba over the next few years.

The Cuba editorial addressed a recent report by U.S. congressional investigators that said the U.S. Agency for International Development did not always properly oversee Cuban aid grants and that coordination with the State Department was sometimes ineffective. Cashmere sweaters and chocolate were among the items bought with agency money, the study found.

The party newspaper criticized the American diplomatic mission in Havana for distributing books, medicine, clothes and shortwave radios to Cubans, saying the congressional report confirms that the U.S. Interests Section "acts like the central barracks of the counterrevolution."

The Cuban government frequently accuses dissidents of working with U.S. officials to undermine the island's system. That charge -- denied by the dissidents and Washington -- was used against 75 activists rounded up in the spring of 2003 and sentenced to prison terms ranging from six to 28 years.

"The poorly named dissident movement is no more than a group financed and directed by the U.S. government, true mercenaries ... at the service of the Cuban people's historic enemy: Yankee imperialism," the editorial said.

"No matter how much money they spend, they'll never be able to bend the will of the Cuban people," it added.

Under Raul Castro's rule, one of the 75 activists imprisoned in 2003 has been released from jail for health reasons, but tolerance for the opposition remains limited, with government supporters breaking up an attempt by a small group of dissidents to silently march in a Havana park on Human Rights Day, Sunday.

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Cubans unhappy with lack of freedom, poll shows

By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Cubans are divided on their country's Communist leadership and frustrated by the country's lack of freedom and economic opportunity, according to a rare outside poll released on Thursday.

The poll was conducted by Gallup, which returned for the first time in 12 years to a country where public attitudes can be hard to gauge thanks to a single-party government that tightly controls its news media.

The polling organization, which has conducted similar public-opinion surveys in 100 countries, said it encountered no government interference from the Western Hemisphere's only Communist government.

The Cubans selected on a random, scientific basis were often very eager to share their views, poll organizers said. They said people's attitude to the government had not changed markedly since the 1994 survey.

Organizers said they avoided talking to neighborhood block captains responsible for enforcing revolutionary zeal, and had to stick to the island's two main cities because travel to rural areas was too difficult.

Only 25 percent of those interviewed said they were satisfied with the freedom they have to choose what to do with their lives, the lowest figure among 100 countries surveyed by the polling firm.

In urban Latin America as a whole, 80 percent said they were satisfied with their personal freedom.

The poll found that most Cubans are satisfied with their country's health care, public safety and education system, but are less likely than other Latin Americans to express satisfaction with the jobs they held as adults.

Only 42 percent said they believe that people in their country could get ahead by working hard. In Latin America as a whole, that figure is 77 percent.

Roughly one-third said they were using their talents as much as they like, compared with 66 percent in Latin America as a whole.

The poll showed that Cuba's command economy often thwarts the ambitions of its residents, organizers said.

"It's a breakdown from what they're intending to build and what happens in adulthood," said Jesus Rios, regional director of research for Gallup.

Cubans were split on the merits of their current government. While 47 percent said they approved of the leadership of ailing leader Fidel Castro and his brother Raul, 40 percent said they disapproved.

The poll was conducted between September 1 and September 15, after Fidel Castro underwent emergency intestinal survey and temporarily handed over power to Raul Castro on July 31.

The public's attitude toward the government has not changed markedly since the 1994 survey, organizers said.

Most Cubans described themselves as fair and egalitarian, but fewer than half said Cubans could be described as democratic.

And despite Cuba's antagonistic relationship with its giant neighbor to the north, Cubans said the United States would make the best trading partner, ahead of Venezuela and China.

"The U.S. is kind of their alter ego. It's present in every day of their lives," Rios said.

Gallup said it used the same questions for its survey that it has posed to residents in 100 other countries around the world.

The survey, conducted by Central American pollers, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

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US congressmen in rare Cuba trip

Ten US congressmen are travelling to Cuba in what is thought to be the largest such delegation to visit since Fidel Castro took power in 1959.

BBC

Members of the bipartisan group favour the easing of US sanctions on Cuba.

It has not been confirmed whether they are to meet the acting Cuban leader, Raul Castro, who has recently expressed an interest in improving ties.

President Fidel Castro, 80, temporarily ceded power to his brother after having emergency intestinal surgery in July.

The US broke official ties with Cuba following Fidel Castro's rise to power in 1959 and has had an economic embargo in place against the island since 1960.

Important timing

The US delegation will spend three days in Cuba, during which time members are due to meet several high-ranking Cuban officials.

The BBC's Americas editor Emilio San Pedro says the timing of the visit, coming as Cuba undergoes what could be described as its most significant internal political transformation in decades, is important.

However, it has yet to be seen if they will meet Raul Castro or whether the trip will be anything more than symbolic, our correspondent says.

The visit has been criticised by some opponents of the Castro regime in the US, including Cuban exiles in Miami, who say that economic interests should not be put before human rights in Cuba.

The Bush administration has also shown no signs of embracing a thaw as long as Cuba's communist system remains intact and political prisoners remain in jail, our correspondent adds.

'Very ill'

Acting leader Raul Castro has given several indications that he may be open to a warming of relations.

A fortnight ago, he used an address at a military parade held to mark his older brother's 80th birthday to attack the US - but also to renew an offer to hold talks with Washington.

Fidel Castro did not appear at the parade and has not been seen in public since 26 July.

His last appearance on Cuban TV, looking frail and wearing pyjamas rather than his trademark military fatigues, was in late October.

The top US intelligence official, John Negroponte, has told the Washington Post newspaper that the president is believed to be very ill and close to death.

"Everything we see indicates that it will not be much longer... months, not years," he told the Post.

Cubans polled

Meanwhile, a poll of people living in Cuba's two largest cities released by Gallup on Thursday suggests only one in four are satisfied with their freedom to choose what they do with their lives.

The poll, of 600 Cubans in Havana and 400 from Santiago, also revealed division over the performance of Cuba's leaders, with just under half approving and 40% disapproving.

On Wednesday, the top US diplomat for Latin America, Tom Shannon, criticised a greater crackdown on dissent since Raul Castro took power.

The US had also "not been able to detect there the emergence of any political figure that could be reformist", he said, and there were no clear signals about the path any future leadership would take.

Cuba's ruling Communist party newspaper Granma responded to Mr Shannon's remarks with a front-page editorial vowing to defy US efforts to bring about economic and political change on the island.

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A new start for Cuba; AFTER CASTRO

BY OSCAR ESPINOSA CHEPE

15 December 2006

The Miami Herald

H AVANA -- The complete absence of Fidel Castro from the military parade of Dec. 2 commemorating the 50th anniversary of his landing on the island and from other official events honoring him early this month marks the start of a new era for Cuba.

It becomes clearer that the man now in power in Cuba is his brother Raúl, who has the support of the armed forces that he has led for almost five decades. The problems that Raúl inherits are severe. In particular, there is a loss of spiritual values among the citizenry and the fact that the political credibility of the authorities has been severely eroded by years of scarcity and unmet promises. Even in education, public health and social security, where there had been relative progress, there is a marked deterioration of conditions.

The situation is not much better in foreign affairs. The country's political and economic isolation has become acute, with unreliable relationships with Third World countries and a reliance on Venezuela to sustain the Cuban economy with its oil.

Notwithstanding his undeniable historic prominence, Gen. Raúl Castro does not have the charisma and political stature of his older brother, as he himself has acknowledged. With a country in shambles that's facing political, economic and social problems, the new leader has to chose between two options: to continue doing nothing or to initiate a reform process that will raise the standard of living of the population and will allow Cuba to join the international community.

The first option, by keeping the lid on Cubans' entrepreneurial capacity, would have dire results for the country. It has already been officially noted there is evidence of a rampant growth in corruption. This, along with growing poverty, could provoke a social explosion in which all Cubans would be the losers and that would even have a destabilizing influence on neighboring countries.

The second option -- reform -- would entail the implementation of economic measures that could eventually lead to longer-range political changes. It can certainly be said that if long-suppressed productive forces were liberated, there would be satisfactory results in short order.

On Dec. 2, Raúl Castro raised expectations when he signaled his government's willingness to negotiate the normalization of relations with U.S. authorities on the basis of mutual respect. Notwithstanding, any negotiation, whether with the United States or with Europe, would necessarily have to include a measure of good faith.

In the first place would be freeing political prisoners -- who are being held in subhuman conditions. This would not entail any danger to the Cuban government since these are nonviolent people whose interest is not to destabilize the nation. To liberate them would be a positive gesture that the world would acknowledge. Another step would be the ratification by Cuba of the International Treaty of Political and Civil Rights and the International Treaty of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which most countries around the world have signed.

The United States could also take steps to promote confidence and trust toward eventual negotiations. One such would be the elimination of restrictions on family visits by Cubans on both sides of the Florida Straits, another the strengthening of academic, cultural, artistic and sports contacts between the two countries.

Undoubtedly, along with the problems, the new government inherits a legacy of ideology from which it cannot divest itself, even if it wanted to, for reasons of legitimacy. Fidel Castro has been a decisive factor in Cuban history for the last 50 years during which he has held almost absolute power.

The choices for a new direction in government are clear: Stay the course, or implement reforms that will lead to a prosperous, democratic reconciliation for the nation.

Oscar Espinosa Chepe is an independent Cuban journalist in Cuba.

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HAVANA JOURNAL

Cuba's Rap Vanguard Reaches Beyond the Party Line

By MARC LACEY

15 December 2006

The New York Times

HAVANA -- In a country like Cuba, where the state has its hand in just about everything, it is perhaps not surprising that there is a governmental body that concerns itself with rap music.

Alarmed by the number of young people in baggy clothing and ill-aligned baseball caps rapping around the island, the government created the Cuban Rap Agency four years ago to bring rebellious rhymers into the fold.

The person chosen to lead the agency was Susana Garcia Amaros, 46, who studied Latin American literature at the University of Havana, specializing in the writings of Afro-Cubans. She said that when officials from the Ministry of Culture approached her for the job she told them that she was not a rap expert. But she said she appreciated the music and its underlying messages.

''Rap is a form of battle,'' she said. ''It's a way of protesting for a section of the population. It has force. It's not just the beat -- the boom, boom, boom -- it's the lyrics.''

The rap agency became a co-sponsor of an annual hip-hop festival that began in 1994, and it started promoting rappers and helping them to produce occasional albums. But only artists whose rap does not veer too much from the party line qualify for the government aid.

''We don't have songs on a record that speak badly of the revolution,'' Ms. Garcia Amaros said on a recent day. ''That doesn't make sense.''

Not surprisingly, most rappers, who are by definition a rebellious lot, are averse to joining forces with the government, even as they struggle to spread their rhymes on their own. Only nine groups are working with the agency. Of the remaining 500 or more across the island, some voice discontent with Cuban society in language that is as blunt as the accompanying beat is loud.

''We are not in agreement with any political system, the one here or the one you have,'' said Aldo Rodriguez Baquero, 23, who teams up with his friend Bian Rodriguez Gala in a popular group called Los Aldeanos, or The Villagers. ''We want liberty and freedom.''

While rap appeals to just a subset of Cuba's youngsters, many of the five million Cubans under the age of 30 similarly question the system.

The government's own surveys have found that the bulk of the unemployed in Cuba are young and that many youths are uncertain about their future. The blame, the government argues, lies with the United States trade embargo.

Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque raised the disenchantment of many of Cuba's young people in a speech last year, which was reported by The Miami Herald. ''We have a challenge,'' said Mr. Perez Roque, who is in his early 40s and is considered one of the next generation of Cuban leaders. ''These young people have more information and more consumer expectations than those at the start of the revolution.''

He added that young people were more likely to hear their elders telling stories about social progress under the current government and respond, ''Oh, please, don't come to me with that same old speech.''

The situation among Afro-Cubans, about 60 percent of the population, is especially acute. They are considerably poorer than whites, according to studies. Among the reasons are that white Cubans are more likely to have relatives sending remittances from the United States, and whites hold the bulk of the jobs in the profitable tourism industry.

Afro-Cubans complain that they have inferior housing and are more likely than whites to be hassled on the streets by the police.

The rappers speak of these and other problems, often bluntly.

''What we sing, people can't say,'' said Mr. Rodriguez Baquero, who wore a blue bandanna to pull back his braided hair as he rapped on the sidewalk outside an overflowing club. ''They think we are crazy. We say what they only whisper.''

He acknowledged that his mother and his rap partner's mother worried about their outspoken ways. ''They don't want to lose us,'' he said.

But they keep rapping, even though some of Havana's club owners have banned them for a time over some of their toughest songs, including one dealing with police harassment.

As for the rap agency, Mr. Rodriguez Baquero dismisses that with a wave of his hand. ''We don't want to be in any agency,'' he said. ''It's the same as slavery for us.''

But not all that many people hear what he and other independent rappers have to say. They produce albums in their homes in bare-bones studios and distribute them by hand.

''It's very difficult to do rap in Cuba,'' he acknowledged.

One of those working behind the scenes to aid Cuba's rappers is Cheri Dalton, an American who goes by the name Nehanda Abiodun. She is a black militant who is wanted by the F.B.I. in connection with a string of robberies, including a 1981 holdup of an armored car near Nyack, N.Y. Now living in exile in Cuba, she has formed a Havana chapter of Black August, a grass-roots group that promotes hip-hop culture.

''There's always been a love for music from the States in Cuba,'' said Ms. Abiodun, who declined to discuss her own case. ''You can go back to Nat King Cole, Earth Wind & Fire and Aretha Franklin.''

Rap, first heard in the '80s by those in eastern Cuba who picked up Florida radio stations, is no exception. ''They spit out rhymes on everything from race to gender to police harassment,'' she said of Cuba's hip-hop generation. ''They point out contradictions in society that were taboo to talk about.''

But despite the disenchantment of many young people with Cuba's system, rap appears to be losing some ground here. The hip-hop festival, held every August, was a flop last year and was canceled this year. Nobody seems sure why. Some rappers say the culprit was not so much the government involvement as it was another musical genre that is pushing rap aside. Reggaeton, a blend of reggae, rap and Latin music that was born in Puerto Rico, is now the rage.

The governmental rap agency has begun promoting reggaeton artists, whose messages are often intended more to get people on the dance floor than to protest. It is harder than ever for rappers to find a stage.

''Reggaeton is about sex and girls and that's it,'' grumbled Mario Gutierrez, 19, who criticizes his fellow rappers who have speeded up their beat and gone reggaeton. ''We are singing for change. We want freedom. We want a better Cuba than this one.''

Photos: Cheri Dalton, an American exile who goes by the name Nehanda Abiodun, has been working with Cuban rappers to promote their music.; The rappers Bian Rodriguez Gala, second from left, and Aldo Rodriguez Baquero, right, of Los Aldeanos. (Photographs by Jose Goitia for The New York Times)

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