Cuban News December 27 2006

Havana, Dec 27 (EFE).- Members of Cuba's ever-beleaguered but generally optimistic pro-democracy movement say they are perceiving a rise in street-level consciousness of the need for change and expect 2007 to be a momentous year.

With Fidel Castro, who ruled charismatically and autocratically for more than 47 years, sidelined last July by illness, expectations of a transition are growing, the dissidents say.

Manuel Cuesta Morua, leader of the Social Democratic Progressive Arc, told EFE that the phrase that best sums up the situation is "Cuba cannot stand more of the same."

"Regardless of whether people are more critical of the regime or not, whether they have their thoughts aligned more coherently or not, running through the whole society is the sensation that Cuba cannot stand more of the same," he said.

He senses that the systematic repression of non-Communist and non-official thought and deed has become more "passive" in recent months, with the regime taking a mostly reactive rather than pre-emptive role.

"Two thousand seven will be the year in which the succession of power is completed and there could be a new government within the Revolution," he said.

Fidel, who turned 80 this year, delegated power "provisionally" last summer to his brother Raul, the longtime defense minister and designated heir, after undergoing intestinal surgery. The supreme commander's diagnosis and prognosis are "a state secret."

Hector Palacios, a former political prisoner released early this month after more than three years behind bars, said Cubans are more preoccupied with getting by than with Fidel's health.

"The comandante's health is not a big concern of the people. They have so many things to resolve that they have no time to be thinking about Fidel's health, and they are aware of the need for change," he said.

The coming year "will be crucial, a year of great shifts." He said movement toward some sort of climax is contributed to by economic woes, including "rampant inflation" spurred by hikes in utility rates and public transportation.

For Elizardo Sanchez, president of the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation - which like the other organizations mentioned here is considered illegal by the regime - "political repression has been a constant this year like in all previous years."

He saw slight ups and downs in the level of application, but said he considered a pro-government mob's roughing-up of peacefully protesting dissidents on Dec. 10 "a demonstration of muscle flexing" by Raul Castro.

"What the average citizen on the street wants is for this page (regarding Fidel) to turn, and for better times to come," he said.

"The repression continues," said Miriam Leiva of the Women in White, a group of relatives of political prisoners that advocates respect for fundamental civil rights .

"It was at such high levels before, that I don't think you can say it was worse this year," she said. "It was stronger in the interior of the country though, to remind people that they cannot move about freely and with the specific intention of reminding us that we all are hostages."

"On balance, (2006) was not negative," said Oscar Espinosa Chepe, another former political prisoner. "There have been advances in the public's consciousness of the need for change. That is something I perceive in the street."

Raul Castro said in a speech last week that neither he nor any other indvidual can take the place of Fidel and that the top commander's only legitimate heir is the Communist Party.

"Fidel cannot be substituted for, unless it is all of us together that substitute for him, each one in the place that belongs to them," he told an audience of university students.

"This is an historic moment," he said. Without elaborating and perhaps referring only to his advanced age and that of Fidel, he added: "We at this time are concluding the fulfillment of our duty."

"We must make way for the new generations, or continue to open the way for new generations, gradually," he said. EFE

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Spanish doctor: Castro doesn't have cancer

By Gary Marx, Tribune foreign correspondent.

27 December 2006

Chicago Tribune

PHOTO (color): Dr. Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido, who traveled to Havana last week, declined to clarify what ailment Fidel Castro has. AP photo by Bernat Armangue.

HAVANA--In the first independent diagnosis of Fidel Castro, a prominent Spanish surgeon said Tuesday the ailing 80-year-old leader does not have cancer and is recuperating slowly from intestinal surgery.

Dr. Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido traveled to Havana last Thursday to examine Castro at the request of Cuban authorities. Garcia Sabrido has returned to Madrid, where he told reporters that Castro's condition is stable and he does not require additional surgery.

But Garcia Sabrido declined to clarify what ailment Castro is suffering from. Cuban officials have said Castro's health condition is a state secret, and his Cuban doctors reportedly are sequestered.

No `malignancy'

"Fidel Castro does not suffer from any malignancy," Garcia Sabrido said at Madrid's Gregorio Maranon hospital, where he is chief surgeon. "It is a benign process in which he has suffered a series of complications."

Garcia Sabrido said Castro's mind is active and clear and he could return to power if he recovers completely.

A U.S. diplomat in Havana who asked not to be identified said she heard Garcia Sabrido's diagnosis but declined to comment about "a statement from a private physician."

Cuba's state-run television did not cover the story in its Tuesday newscasts.

Castro's health condition has been a mystery since Cuban authorities announced in late July that the nation's long-serving leader suffered intestinal bleeding, underwent surgery and ceded power to his younger brother, Defense Minister Raul Castro.

In a statement signed July 31, the Cuban leader attributed his illness to a heavy work and travel schedule. He has said little else since then.

In recent months, Carlos Lage and other top officials have asserted that Castro is not suffering from cancer, but they have offered no evidence to back up their statements.

Castro has not been seen in public since late July, and the few photographs and short videos of him carried in the Cuban media showed him to be thin and fragile.

Absent information, many Cubans have come believe that Castro had undergone two or perhaps three surgeries and was suffering from cancer or another terminal illness.

U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte said earlier this month that Castro had "months, not years" to live.

But Garcia Sabrido's diagnosis appears to confirm what Cuban officials have been saying all along about Castro's illness, though they have recently softened earlier statements that he would soon return to full duties.

"He is getting better," Ramon Castro, Fidel's older brother, said in a brief interview last week.

Rodrigo Alvarez Cambras, a leading Cuban physician who is not among the doctors treating Castro, said in an interview last week that he believes Castro is suffering from diverticulitis, a complication of a common illness in people older than 50 in which pockets develop in the colon.

In moderate cases, the pockets become inflamed and infected, causing abdominal pain, diarrhea and bleeding. In severe cases, the colon is perforated, a condition known as peritonitis, in which stool leaks into the abdominal cavity and requires immediate surgery.

"They usually cut out the piece of the colon that has a hole in it, suck out all of the stool in the cavity and give the patient a temporary colostomy bag," explained Dr. Sunanda Kane, a gastroenterologist at the University of Chicago Hospitals.

Kane said the condition could be fatal if the patient develops sepsis, a general body infection, which can cause organs such as the kidneys to shut down and require dialysis treatment.

"Eighty-year-olds who are on dialysis tend to have a poorer prognosis," she said.

But Garcia Sabrido said Tuesday that Castro's rehabilitation now involves mostly muscular and nutritional support, indicating to Kane that the worst may be over for Castro.

A duty to be a physician

Responding to critics who argued that he should not have treated the communist strongman, Garcia Sabrido said his trip to Havana was motivated by humanitarian concerns and not politics.

"When a physician is called upon as a physician, his duty is to be a physician," Garcia Sabrido said. "If I am asked my opinion about a patient, I don't ask about his religion or his political ideas.

"I am a professional doctor and I devote myself to that," he said. "For me, President Castro is an exceptional patient, but he's still a patient."

gmarx@tribune.com

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Doctor: Castro doesn't have cancer; A Spanish surgeon says Fidel Castro is recovering from surgery to treat a 'benign illness,' in the first independent report on the Cuban leader's health since he fell ill five months ago.

BY FRANCES ROBLES

frobles@MiamiHerald.com

27 December 2006

The Miami Herald

Fidel Castro ''absolutely'' does not have cancer but is recovering from complications after surgery to treat a ''benign illness,'' a Spanish surgeon who examined the Cuban leader said Tuesday in the first independent medical opinion of Castro's health since he gave up power almost five months ago.

Dr. José Luis García Sabrido, chief surgeon at Madrid's Gregorio Marañón General Hospital, flew to Havana on Thursday on a flight chartered by the Cuban government. In a press conference Tuesday in Madrid, García Sabrido offered few medical details about what is ailing the controversial Cuban leader but insisted Castro is not dying of cancer.

''Within [the rules] of confidentiality, what I can say is that President Castro doesn't suffer from a malignant illness,'' García Sabrido said at the televised news conference when asked whether Castro's illness was curable. ``It's a benign illness for which he has had a series of complications.''

Asked if he had cancer, García Sabrido said, ``From what I know, I absolutely deny it.''

The doctor's words did little to sway U.S. officials from their belief that the Cuban leader is gravely ill.

Castro stepped down from office July 31, saying he had undergone intestinal surgery. Officially a state secret, little has been said about his health since. Most Cuba-watchers came to believe Castro was in the last stages of a terminal illness when he failed to appear at a Dec. 2 parade in his honor.

On Dec. 13, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte told The Washington Post that Castro had ''months, not years'' to live and ''we think he's terminally ill.'' That belief was reiterated by several officials Tuesday, though they were careful not to suggest that Castro was suffering from some form of terminal stomach cancer.

EVALUATION STANDS

One official said his government agency had ''no reason'' to reconsider its evaluation that Castro's condition was ''very serious indeed.'' The official spoke on condition that his name and affiliation not be revealed, given the sensitivity and speculative nature of the subject.

The State Department declined to comment on the Spanish doctor's assessment. But privately officials reiterated the U.S. government's previously stated belief that Castro is more ill than Cuban officials have let on.

The State Department has said since August that it believes Castro will not return to wield the kind of absolute power he once held.

García Sabrido said Castro asks every day to return to work, but doctors in Havana have demanded prudence. García Sabrido did not discount the possibility that Castro could return to office if his recovery is ``absolute.''

''I think that in these moments his decision to delegate power implies that he must now be dedicated to his recovery,'' the Associated Press reported. ``What happens in the future will be an absolutely personal matter.''

Among García Sabrido's revelations:

For now, no more surgeries are being considered.

Castro is in stable condition after the very serious surgery.

His mental condition is ''exceptional and fantastic,'' and he has a surprising ability to recount historical anecdotes.

His recovery includes nutrition and physical therapy.

This was the first time he examined Castro, but they had met previously.

''One of the big problems facing the medical team is how to limit his [physical] activity, an activity that has been long recognized as excellent,'' García Sabrido said. ``But that's very difficult.''

The press conference was the first time a credible source backed up the Cuban government's account of Castro's condition. But even when the Spanish Health Ministry made news around the world Monday by confirming Dr. García Sabrido's visit, Cuba's media made no mention of it.

García Sabrido's trip is already causing controversy in Spain, where conservative politicians questioned the use of Spanish funds to pay for medicines being sent to the Cuban leader since June.

The Heath Department declined to specify the cost, Europa Press reported.

''If the comandante has to ask for help . . . what happens to the rest of the Cuban citizens, especially the political prisoners?'' Esperanza Aguirre, president of the Madrid regional government, said on Spanish TV.

AID `FOR A DICTATOR'

Although Aguirre noted that the Spanish government offers humanitarian aid to whoever asks for it, she said it was unfortunate that in this case it was for ``a dictator.''

García Sabrido insisted that his medical services were offered on a personal basis, and not on behalf of the Spanish government.

''The consideration for a doctor when they asked for a medical opinion is to be a doctor,'' he said. ``I do not ask patients either their religion, their political ideology or tendencies. I am a medical professional and I dedicate myself to my profession. For me, President Castro is an exceptional patient, but he does not stop being a patient.''

The surgeon said his relationship with Cuba dates back several years, and that he has ''had the privilege'' of government and scientific contacts on the island.

García Sabrido's specialty is in the digestive system and in transplants. This year, he gave a lecture on pancreatic surgery.

Europa Press reported that the Cuban embassy in Madrid was pleased with García Sabrido's report -- suggesting he gave it with permission from the Cuban government.

Miami Herald translator Renato Pérez and staff writer Pablo Bachelet contributed to this report.

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No news for Cubans, as doctor tells world Fidel's cancer-free

HAVANA, Dec 26, 2006 (AFP) -

Cubans concerned about the health of ailing Fidel Castro -- for most the only leader they have known -- were kept in the dark by official Cuban media Tuesday, as a Spanish doctor who examined him refuted reports he was dying.

On his return to Spain after visiting Cuba since Thursday, Jose Luis García Sabrido, a chief surgeon at a Madrid hospital, denied "absolutely" that Castro had cancer.

Castro, 80, who reportedly underwent intestinal surgery on July 27, "is not suffering from a malignant illness but from a benign process with a series of complications," the surgeon told a news conference in Madrid.

The Cuban leader is "in a process of slow but progressive recovery" and does not need further surgery, he said, declining to give further details, citing patient confidentiality.

Asked whether Castro was suffering from cancer, Garcia Sabrido said: "I absolutely deny that, based on the information I have."

The Cuban leader, who has been in power since 1959, has not been seen in public for five months. There have been few medical updates since his reported surgery, after which he handed over power temporarily to his brother, Raul Castro, the defense minister.

Tightly controlled state media published no news Tuesday of the Spanish surgeon's health update on the ailing leader.

But a source at the Cuban ministry in Madrid, cited by Spanish news agency Europa Press, called the news "very positive" and the report "rigorous."

In Cuba, the rumors about the doctor's report were flying. "Already at my house we know it and people in the neighborhood told my mother, that for sure it will be seen by antenna (illegal satellite television)," a youth in a crowded sector of Havana told AFP.

A 20-year-old University of Havana student said anonymously: "We would like more specific information, even if (Fidel Castro) does not appear in public; but we would like some message from the Comandante, an explanation."

The United States, the arch-foe of the Americas' only communist-ruled state, said it would "wait and see" to determine Castro's true state of health.

"As we said often, our capacity to determine Fidel Castro's health is minimal," US State Department spokesman Gonzo Gallegos said.

The spokesman said he had no further comment "other than the fact that he hasn't been seen in a while and we have to wait and see what his condition truly is."

A top US intelligence official earlier this month had signaled Castro's imminent death.

"Everything we see indicates it will not be much longer ... months, not years" for Castro, US Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte was quoted as saying by The Washington Post.

But Garcia Sabrido, who heads a surgery unit at Gregorio Maranon university hospital and is described by the Spanish media as a top gastroenterologist, described Castro's condition as "fine."

"Every day he asks to go back to work but the doctors won't allow it," he said after his visit to Cuba late last week. He said he was full of admiration at Castro's "excellent and fantastic intellectual activity."

He examined Castro on the request of Havana and told reporters he had traveled to the island on "a strictly personal basis" after informing his own hospital authorities. It was his first medical examination of the Cuban leader, but he said several members of Castro's medical team were old acquaintances.

In Cuba, Castro's health is being treated as a state secret.

But in the year marking the 48th anniversary of Castro's ousting of dictator Fulgencio Batista, his absence at a December 2 military parade stunned people and sparked speculation he might be seriously ill, or near death. He was last seen in an October 28 video, in which he appeared weak.

On Friday, Castro missed the National Assembly's final session of the year, only the second time that has happened in 30 years.

Interim leader Raul Castro, who presided over the event, said Fidel was "progessing in his recovery."

But Cubans used to decades of Fidel's dominant presence in official media have not grown used to his absence of the past few months.

News reports last week said the Cuban leader was too ill to receive his old friend, Nobel Prize-winning Colombian author Gabriel Garcia Marquez, who was on the island for nearly a month. mis/vs/fgf

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Spanish Doctor Denies Castro Has Cancer (McKinley, NYT)
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
The New York Times
By James C. McKinley Jr.
MEXICO CITY, Dec. 26 - A Spanish surgeon who examined Fidel Castro last week said Tuesday that the 80-year-old Cuban president did not have cancer and could return to work after recovering from the intestinal surgery he had last summer.
"His physical activity is excellent, his intellectual activity intact," the doctor, José Luis García Sabrido, head of surgery at Gregorio Marañón Hospital in Madrid, said at a news conference in Madrid. "I'd say fantastic. He's recovering from his previous operation."
This is the first time since Mr. Castro dropped out of public view in the summer that a medical expert outside the Cuban government has commented on his health.
Cuban officials have said Mr. Castro's condition is a state secret.
United States intelligence officials have said Mr. Castro is not long for this world, especially after he failed to appear at a weeklong celebration of his birthday, held this month.
Speculation has been rampant in Washington and among Cuban exiles in Miami that Mr. Castro, a leftist icon who has thumbed his nose at the White House for nearly five decades, has colon cancer.
The director of national intelligence, John D. Negroponte, told The Washington Post this month that American intelligence agencies believed that Mr. Castro was "terminally ill" and that he would be dead in "months, not years." Other American intelligence officials have said they believe that Mr. Castro is dying of cancer.
On Tuesday, a spokesman for Mr. Negroponte, Ross Feinstein, said the director had nothing to add to his earlier assessment.
Dr. García Sabrido, who examined Mr. Castro in Cuba last week, said the intestinal bleeding that prompted the handing of power to his brother Raúl and small group of cabinet ministers in the summer did not stem from a malignancy. He added that Mr. Castro could make a full recovery, but "required muscular rehabilitation and a strict diet."
"He does not have cancer, he has a problem with his digestive system," Dr. García Sabrido told reporters in Madrid. "President Castro has no malign inflammation. It's a benign process in which he has had a series of complications."
The surgeon flew to Havana last week with medical equipment not available in Cuba to determine whether Mr. Castro needed further surgery. In keeping with Havana's wishes, he did not say specifically what ailed Mr. Castro.
"It is not planned that he will undergo another operation for the moment," Dr. García Sabrido said. "His condition is stable. He is recovering slowly but progressively."
Cuban officials have steadfastly denied that Mr. Castro has cancer, although they have stopped insisting that he will return to power. On Oct. 28, video images released to the public showed that the once towering leader had become a shuffling and frail man.
A number of noncancerous ailments can cause serious intestinal bleeding. A common problem in the United States is diverticulitis. It is an inflammation of small pouchlike balloonings in the large bowel, or large intestine, and can require a number of surgical procedures. Examples of other noncancerous intestinal conditions are inflammatory bowel diseases like regional enteritis (Crohn's) or ulcerative colitis.
Serious bleeding could also develop as a complication of surgery to correct an insufficient blood supply to the intestine. Such a condition may be caused by arteriosclerosis and is analogous to the insufficient blood supply that can lead to angina, heart attack or stroke.
To correct the problem, surgeons may have to remove a large part of the small intestine, sometimes creating a difficulty known as short bowel syndrome. That syndrome can lead to difficulty in digestion.
Besides his absence from a military parade in his honor on Dec. 2, other signs have indicated Mr. Castro's weakened condition. On Friday, he missed the last session of the year of the National Assembly for only the second time in 30 years.
News reports last week said Mr. was too ill to receive a longtime friend, the Colombian author and Nobel Prize winner Gabriel García Márquez.
Cuban officials told visiting American congressmen this month that Mr. Castro did not have a terminal illness and would make a public appearance shortly.

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Castro's Ailment Not Malignant, Spanish Surgeon Says (Giles, WP/AP)
Wednesday, December 27, 2006; A8
The Washington Post
By Ciaran Giles
MADRID, Dec. 26 -- A Spanish surgeon who treated Fidel Castro said the ailing Cuban leader does not have cancer, insisting Tuesday he was recovering slowly but progressively from a serious operation.
The comments by Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido, the chief surgeon at Madrid's Gregorio Maranon Hospital, represented the first independent medical assessment of Castro's condition since the Cuban leader underwent emergency intestinal surgery in July. The Cuban government has kept Castro's condition a state secret, occasionally releasing photographs and videos of him to show he is convalescing.
Garcia Sabrido visited Havana last week to examine Castro and consult with his medical team.
"He hasn't got cancer," Garcia Sabrido said, adding that he believed Castro could be physically able to run the country again. "While respecting confidentiality, I can tell you that President Castro is not suffering from any malignant sickness."
Garcia Sabrido declined to give details about Castro's condition, but said it was "a benign process in which there have been a series of complications."
Cuban authorities have denied Castro, 80, is suffering from terminal cancer as U.S. intelligence officials have said. Some U.S. doctors say Castro may suffer from diverticular disease, which can cause bleeding in the lower intestine, especially in people over 60. In some severe cases, emergency surgery is required.
Garcia Sabrido said he was impressed by Castro's good spirits.
"His intellectual activity is intact, I'd say fantastic," the surgeon said. "I was amazed at his capacity to relate personal and historical anecdotes."
There was no mention of Garcia Sabrido's visit in Cuba's state media.

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UPDATE 5-Castro cancer free, could govern again-doctor

By Andrew Hay

(Adds Cuban reaction)

MADRID, Dec 26 (Reuters) - A Spanish surgeon who has just examined Cuban leader Fidel Castro said on Tuesday he is making a good recovery from intestinal surgery, does not have cancer, and could return to governing his country.

Castro's disappearance from the public eye after emergency surgery for intestinal bleeding in July sparked frenzied speculation about his health, but surgeon Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido said the communist leader was in good condition.

"His physical activity is excellent, his intellectual activity intact, I'd say fantastic, he's recovering from his previous operation," Garcia Sabrido, head of surgery at Madrid's Gregorio Maranon public hospital, told a news conference after returning from Cuba.

"He asks every day to return to work, but doctors advise him not to, to take it easy," said Garcia Sabrido.

Garcia Sabrido, who flew to Cuba last week to examine the 80-year-old leader, said he did not need further surgery but required physical therapy, a strict diet and rest.

"He does not have cancer, he has a problem with his digestive system," Garcia Sabrido told Reuters after the news conference. "President Castro has no malign inflammation, it's a benign process in which he has had a series of complications."

STATE SECRET

In Havana, Cuban officials declined to comment on the doctor's statements, saying Castro's condition was a state secret. But his prognosis was in line what they have been saying for months.

The Cuban population, used to being told little about the inner workings of the government, was unaware of Garcia Sabrido's visit to Cuba.

Castro supporters, worried by his disappearance and uncertain of their country's future, expressed relief at the doctor's comments.

"We hope that he will speak to the nation when he is well. We are anxious to know how he is," said a woman waiting at a bus stop. "I don't think there will be changes, Cuba will continue along the path he has shown us."

Other Cubans were not so relieved. "Does that mean he will take hold of the reins of power again?" asked a housewife in central Havana who did not want to be named.

After Castro's disappearance from the public eye, U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte told the Washington Post on Dec. 15 that Castro was likely to die within months.

Garcia Sabrido said Castro could govern Cuba again.

"Yes, if his recovery is complete, yes," said the digestive system specialist who knows the Castro family and is a regular visitor to Cuba for medical conferences and to give treatment.

Garcia Sabrido said it was the first time he had treated Castro, and he did not plan to return to Cuba in the near future as the leader had an excellent medical team.

Defense Minister Raul Castro, 75, took over the government temporarily on July 31 when emergency surgery forced his famous brother to relinquish power for the first time since Cuba's 1959 revolution.

Video images released on Oct. 28 showed the once towering revolutionary diminished to a frail and shuffling old man.

When Castro failed to show at a military parade in his honor on Dec. 2, many began to doubt he would run the country again.

U.S. Rep. William Delahunt, a Massachusetts Democrat who was in a delegation that visited Cuba this month, said he had concluded from discussions with officials there that if Castro did resume a political role, it would probably be setting broad policy, not governing on a day-to-day basis.

(Additional reporting by Milexsy Duran in Havana)

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As Castro Fades, A Crop Of New Leaders (Fawthrop, CSM)
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
The Christian Science Monitor
By Tom Fawthrop

HAVANA, CUBA
In a country that is in the process of bidding a long farewell to its ageing revolutionaries, Mariela Castro brings an expectation of change along with an air of youthful passion. As the director of Cenesex (the National Sex Education Center) Ms. Castro is eager to consider where Cuba should go in a postrevolutionary era.
"We have many contradictions in Cuba," says Castro, the daughter of Raúl Castro, Cuba's de facto leader and brother of ailing President Fidel Castro. A Spanish doctor arrived in Cuba last week, reenergizing speculation about the health of the Cuban leader, who has not been seen in public since undergoing surgery in July. "We need to experiment and to test what really works, to make public ownership more effective, rather than simply adopting wholesale free-market reforms," Ms. Castro says.
Leaders like Ms. Castro may indicate the extent to which a post-Castro Cuba may be willing to liberalize, both economically and socially. As Cuba's old-guard leadership fades, this new generation - made up primarily of the sons and daughters of those who fought in the 1959 Communist revolution - is perhaps more sympathetic to economic reforms and more-liberal social policies.
Nevertheless, Cuba-watchers and experts have ruled out any dramatic lurch toward a liberal market economy that might undermine the island nation's heritage as the persistent holdout of traditional Communist policies. More relaxed social attitudes may also evolve gradually.
Still, no one doubts that change is afoot.
"The transition in Cuba has already taken place" and this new generation has a key role to play, says Richard Gott, a Latin American analyst and former foreign correspondent for the London-based The Guardian newspaper. "Carlos Lage will be the brains behind the new government. He, together with Julio Soberon at the central bank, will seek to chart a new economic course."
Now Raul Castro has started to echo some of his daughter's sentiments. Addressing university students, he urged that they should ''fearlessly engage in public debate and analysis," according to Granma, the Communist Party newspaper.
Cuba is one of several Latin American countries that once harassed homosexuals as a matter of policy. But Mariela Castro, who is also an executive member of the World Association for Sexual Health, insists that job discrimination and mass arrests are a thing of the past.
"[Homosexuals] still sometimes face arrest by bigoted police" says Castro, adding that she has sometimes clashed with the authorities in her efforts to release gay men and women from prison.
"Now, society is more relaxed. There is no official repression of gays and lesbians," she argues confidently. A writer turned politico
Cuban writer and culture minister Abel Prieto has also emerged as an influential power broker in a changing Cuba. Since joining the state bureaucracy and the politburo, the long-haired, middle-aged minister still exudes a passion for culture and a common touch.
In response to a question about the conflict of interest between writers and the state, Mr. Prieto laughs, saying that, "sometimes I feel like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but I hope that artists and writers feel that I am still one of them."
Unlike many members of the government, Prieto is very candid as he speaks about allegations that the Cuban government censors political websites.
"It would be a delusion to think we could hide that torrent of information," he insists, referring to anti-Castro websites. "The only possibility is to beat them with a better concept of life."
Prieto also defended the arrest of the dissident writer Raul Rivero in 2003.
"He was not arrested for his views, but for receiving US funding for his collaboration with a country that has besieged our island," argues the minister, referring to the 45-year-long US trade embargo.
An avid fan of the Beatles since the 1970s when their music was essentially banned by the Cuban state, Prieto has led an appreciation campaign of John Lennon. In 2000, he unveiled a statue and dedicated "John Lennon Park" to the musician's memory. Many Cubans joke that he is not as much a Marxist-Leninist as a "Marxist-Lennonist."
Prieto, because of a moment on Cuban television five years ago, is known as one of the few Cabinet ministers who has ever dared to challenge the president. Cubans recall a news segment in which Castro and Prieto appeared together.
After Castro blamed his minister for the fact that so many artists were leaving the country to work abroad, Prieto defended himself.
Millions watched as their supreme leader accepted his error and apologized to Abel Prieto.
"Prieto is extremely important. He has carved out a sizable space for cultural expression [for] many Cuban artists and writers since he became minister of culture," says Julia Sweig, director of the Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
In a Foreign Affairs article, written after a lengthy visit to Cuba in November, Ms. Sweig indicated that expectations were high among Cuban officials that the government could move forward after Castro.
"People at all levels of the Cuban government and the Communist Party were enormously confident of the regime's ability to survive Fidel's passing," Ms. Sweig wrote.
That confidence was apparent in Raúl Castro's speech to the opening session of the new parliament last week. "Tell it like it is - tell the truth without justifications, because we are tired of justifications in this revolution," the acting president urged his ministers, according to the youth newspaper Juventud Rebelde. US economic sanctions irrelevant
Attempts by the Bush administration to set the agenda for change in Cuba, says Sweig, appear to be increasingly irrelevant to the reality inside the country, as a new generation gains increasing clout.
Gott, the Latin American analyst, says that both Ms. Castro and Prieto are figures to watch.
"Mariela Castro is a more than competent member of the Castro clan - she will have an important role in social affairs," he says. "The genial Abel Prieto might well be promoted from the culture ministry to something more taxing."

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Cuba Without Castro: A Look Ahead; Fidel's serious illness has led to speculation about what might come next for the Caribbean's largest nation. Here are some possible scenarios

Geri Smith

27 December 2006

BusinessWeek Online

For decades, Cuban Americans living in Miami have toasted each other at New Year's by saying, "Next year in Havana!" They'll be doing the same this Dec. 31, but for the first time since Cuban leader Fidel Castro's successful revolution in 1959, there is a chance their wish may come true.

Castro, 80, who underwent major intestinal surgery in July, has not been seen in public since mid-September, leading to rumors that he may be near death, suffering from incurable cancer. The government in Havana, headed by acting President Raul Castro, his 75-year-old brother, says Fidel is recovering and does not have cancer. Some speculate that he may be suffering from diverticulitis, a condition in which the colon becomes infected and inflamed, sometimes requiring surgery.

Castro's illness has generated much debate among Cuban exiles and the Bush Administration over what would happen on the Caribbean island of 11 million people if Castro, the world's longest-reigning leader, were to die in the coming weeks or months. Here's an analysis of possible scenarios:

Brothers, Not Twins

Who is really in charge now? Raul assumed Fidel's top job, that of first secretary of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party. His other posts were distributed temporarily to other top government officials including Foreign Minister Jorge Perez Roque and Carlos Lage, the country's top energy official. When Castro fell ill, he said he would be back at work in December, but he missed the big public birthday celebration staged for him on Dec. 2.

Is Raul like Fidel? No. Raul is not as charismatic as his older brother is, and he does not command the same kind of loyalty among average Cubans as Fidel does. As head of the armed forces and security apparatus he earned a reputation for ruthlessness dating from the early days of the revolution, when he allegedly ordered hundreds of summary executions. Raul has maintained loyalty among top military officers by appointing them to prestigious jobs heading state-run companies.

Would Raul continue Fidel's economic policies? Raul has visited China and Vietnam and is said to advocate emulating China's strategy of opening the market while maintaining heavy state control over the economy. When the former Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and ended its $4 billion in annual subsidies to Cuba, Raul was instrumental in restructuring the economy during the so-called "Special Period" that followed, when energy, food, and other basic goods were in extremely short supply. He oversaw the military's assumption of control over an estimated 60% of the economy, including such important economic sectors as tourism and agriculture.

A Two-Tier Society

Will Cuba's economy collapse? There's no reason for it to collapse. Cuba's economy is currently growing at an 8% clip, thanks in part to high world prices for its nickel, which accounts for 25% of the country's exports. [The price of nickel, used in stainless steel, has doubled this year, reaching a record price of $34,950 a ton on Dec. 15.] More than two million tourists, mostly from Canada and Europe, visit the island annually, spending some $2 billion. And the country has discovered significant offshore oil deposits that already provide nearly 40% of the oil that Cuba consumes. Venezuela's leftist president Hugo Chavez sends 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil and refined petroleum products to Cuba at sweetheart prices.

But aren't there many shortages on the island? Yes. The average Cuban, whether a doctor or a seamstress, earns just $15 to $20 a month and must use a government-issue ration book for basic necessities such as cooking oil, meat, and soap. Only Cubans with immediate family members living overseas are allowed to receive up to $1,200 annually in remittances, which they can use to buy other items in special government shops that accept only hard currency.

This has created a two-tier society in Cuba. Families receiving money from abroad and Cubans who work in the tourism sector and earn tips in dollars live relatively well, though not by any means in luxury. Most everyone else has to struggle. In the early 1990s the government allowed some Cubans to open small businesses, including family-run restaurants in their homes, but that partial liberalization was rolled back in the late 1990s.

Striking [Lots Of] Oil

In spite of the embargo, some U.S. companies are doing business with Cuba, right? Yes. Since 2000, the U.S. government has eased the embargo slightly, allowing U.S. companies to export around $1.2 billion in food items, chiefly wheat, soybeans, rice, corn, oilseeds, meat and poultry, and dairy products, as well as some medicine to the island. In 2005 alone those exports totaled $361.5 million. Companies must get a special license from the U.S. government and Cuba generally must pay for all purchases in cash. U.S. government studies have indicated that if the embargo is lifted, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba could exceed $1 billion annually within five years, making Cuba the second most important market for foodstuffs in the hemisphere, after Mexico.

Cuba discovered oil off its northern coast in 2002. How promising is that? Very. Studies show that Cuba may have about one billion barrels of reserves in coastal areas, and there may be from four billion to six billion barrels of unproven oil reserves in deep waters in Cuba's part of the Gulf of Mexico, according to Jorge Pinon, a retired Amoco and BP executive now at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban & Cuban-American Studies.

Cuba currently produces 68,000 barrels of oil per day. U.S. oil companies are interested in participating in Cuba's promising oil sector, but for now they must watch from the sidelines while companies such as Canada's Sherritt and Spain's Repsol, as well as state companies from Norway, China, and India, get most of the business.

When Fidel dies, is there any chance that thousands of Cubans will try to flee to the U.S.? Few analysts expect widespread unrest. When Castro announced that he was stepping down temporarily July 31, nothing happened. The U.S. government, however, has contingency plans in place should thousands of Cubans make an effort to flee the island to reach Florida or if Cuban American exiles in Miami organize a flotilla of boats to pluck remaining relatives off the island, which lies just 90 miles south of Miami.

Communism Isn't Negotiable

Would Castro's death make it possible for the U.S. to normalize relations and lift the 45-year-old economic embargo of the island? Not quite. Raul has called for better ties with the U.S., but has made it clear that the country's Communist system is non-negotiable. The 1996 Helms-Burton law stipulates that Washington cannot recognize a transitional government in Cuba until both Fidel and Raul are out of the picture and the country moves toward a free-market democracy.

Under President Bill Clinton, Washington loosened restrictions on academic exchanges and on travel to Cuba by Cuban Americans, but restrictions were reimposed by the Bush Administration, which restricts remittances and now limits visits by relatives to once every three years.

Some believe that Congress, now controlled by the Democrats, may ease those restrictions once again in the belief that greater people-to-people contact will do more to loosen the Castro brothers' grip than isolation. In mid-December, 10 members of the U.S. Congress, including six Democrats and four Republicans, made a rare, three-day visit to Cuba -- the largest U.S. delegation to do so since the 1959 Revolution.

Can Americans get one last look at Communist Cuba before Fidel departs? Not legally. An estimated 80,000 Americans violate the embargo by visiting Cuba each year, usually flying in from Canada or Mexico, but they are subject to hefty fines if their trip is discovered. For a virtual look inside today's Cuba, check out the "Cuba at a Crossroads" slide show, which includes photos from a trip to the island taken by BusinessWeek's Frederik Balfour, a Canadian citizen.

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Effort to deport Cuban dissident attracts criticism in Bolivia

By CARLOS VALDEZ

Associated Press Writer

26 December 2006

LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) - A government human rights monitor on Tuesday called for the government to halt the deportation of a Cuban dissident critical of President Evo Morales' ties to Havana, saying the move could hurt Bolivia's image abroad.

Dr. Amauris Sanmartino, a Cuban who holds permanent residence status in Bolivia, was arrested Saturday in the eastern lowland city of Santa Cruz under a 1996 law forbidding immigrants to be involved in Bolivian politics.

"This case could affect the image of Bolivia," said Public Defender Walter Albarracin, whose office has sought to block Sanmartino's deportation to Cuba. "Beyond whether someone thinks one way or another, here in Bolivia we live in a state of law, and we must be very careful with that state of law."

Appointed by Congress to monitor human rights issues, the public defender runs an independent government agency.

Albarracin confirmed that Sanmartino had fled from Cuba to Bolivia in 2000 with the help of the United States. But the Morales administration says that Sanmartino does not hold refugee status.

U.S. officials are keeping a close eye on the case, which has caught the attention of the Cuban exile community thousands of miles north in Miami.

"We are aware of Mr. Sanmartino's case and we are in contact with the Bolivian government about it," read a brief statement released Tuesday by the U.S. Embassy in La Paz. "In addition to local law, we believe that this case involves international conventions and agreements to which Bolivia is a signatory."

Sanmartino has been transferred to La Paz, where his lawyers have filed for a court hearing to halt the deportation. A hearing set for Tuesday was canceled while Sanmartino was treated for heart problems related to the Andean capital city's high altitude.

Sanmartino has close ties to conservative opposition leaders in Santa Cruz, a center of anti-Morales sentiment. On Tuesday the government accused him of helping to organize a violent Dec. 15 clash between anti-Morales protesters and the president's backers that injured dozens in the town of San Julian, 70 miles (115 kilometers) northwest of Santa Cruz.

Opposition leaders have decried Sanmartino's arrest as political persecution, pointing out that one of the president's own key advisers is Peruvian.

Sanmartino has been a vocal critic of Cuba's government and has publicly denounced the influence of Cuban leader Fidel Castro in Morales' administration.

Morales, Bolivia's first Indian president, is a close ally of Castro, calling the fellow leftist a "wise uncle."

Since Morales took office a year ago Castro has sent more than 1,500 Cuban doctors to provide urgently needed medical services in South America's poorest country.

Sanmartino has helped some of those doctors flee to neighboring Brazil or the United States.

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Cuba Slams Costa Rica Pres On Comparing Castro To Pinochet

27 December 2006

HAVANA (AP)--Cuba blasted Costa Rican President Oscar Arias on Wednesday for comparing ailing leader Fidel Castro to the late Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, calling Arias an "opportunistic clown" who does the bidding of the U.S. government.

In a statement published in the Communist Party daily Granma, the Cuban Foreign Ministry said it reacted with "profound indignation" to President Oscar Arias' comments likening Castro to his ideological foe.

"There is no difference" between the men, Arias said in an interview in Costa Rica last week. "The ideology differs, but both were savage, brutal and bloody."

Pinochet, who died on Dec. 10 at age 91, was blamed for a political crackdown that killed nearly 3,200 people during his right-wing military rule from 1973 to 1990.

The 80-year-old Castro governed communist Cuba without interruption for more than 47 years until he temporarily ceded his powers to his younger brother Raul following intestinal surgery on July 31.

The Washington-friendly Arias, who won the Nobel Peace Price in 1997 for helping broker an end to Central America's civil wars, has exchanged salvos with Cuban officials since he was elected earlier this year.

Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage and Arias quarreled publicly in August after they suspended a meeting on re-establishing diplomatic relations between the two nations. Arias had also wanted to use the meeting to discuss civil rights on the island, but Lage rejected that idea.

In the statement on Wednesday, Cuba called Arias a "vulgar mercenary" of U.S. officials and said Washington "always had on hand another opportunistic clown ready to follow its aggressive plans against Cuba."

"President Arias shamelessly supports the United States' annexation plan against Cuba and disrespects the heroic and selfless struggle of our people for their independence and sovereignty," the statement said.

The escalated spat comes with Castro still out of public view months after his surgery.

On Tuesday, a Spanish surgeon who recently treated Castro said in Madrid that the Cuban leader does not have cancer, as U.S. intelligence officials have speculated, and insisted that he was recovering slowly but steadily from a serious operation.

Cuban authorities have not commented on last week's visit to the island by Dr. Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido, the chief surgeon at Madrid's Gregorio Maranon Hospital.

Garcia Sabrido's statements to news media represented the first independent medical assessment of Castro's condition. The Cuban government has kept Castro's condition a state secret, occasionally releasing photographs and videos of him to show he is convalescing. [ 27-12-06 1603GMT ]

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CUBA: FUELED BY R