Cuban News November 13 2006

WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. government believes Fidel Castro's health is deteriorating and that the Cuban dictator is unlikely to live through 2007, U.S. officials said.

That dire view was reinforced last week when Cuba's foreign minister backed away from his prediction that the ailing Castro would return to power by early December. "It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," Felipe Perez Roque told The Associated Press in Havana.

U.S. government officials say there is still some mystery about Castro's diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe the 80-year-old has terminal cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.

Castro was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive through the end of next year, said the U.S. government and defense officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the politically sensitive topic.

With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, said the defense official. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight months.

American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro's health. But U.S. spy agencies include physicians who study pictures, video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.

The CIA's Office of Medical Services, for example, studies hair and other biological samples for hints about world leaders' health and how that could affect their official duties.

Images and video of a weakened Castro released in late October showed his now-slight frame and shaky movements. They contradicted the athletic image he sought to portray in his red, white and blue Cuban Olympic team warm-up suit, emblazoned with "F. Castro" on the chest.

A dark lesion on his neck could be seen in some images and a baggy nylon jacket could be hiding a colostomy bag. But the photos also made clear that he has not lost his hair or beard to chemotherapy.

Cuba has only known one leader in 47 years. Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother, Raul, at the end of July just before the Cuban government announced that the president was having intestinal surgery.

A planned celebration of Castro's 80th birthday next month is expected to draw international attention. The Cuban leader had planned to attend the public event, which already had been postponed once from his Aug. 13 birthday.

Perez Roque, the foreign minister, said last week that Castro was recovering steadily from his intestinal surgery. "We are optimistic," he said.

But the minister also said there was no guarantee Castro would be well enough to attend the birthday celebration.

Brian Latell, a former Latin American specialist with the CIA who has written a book examining the leadership of Fidel and Raul Castro, said he has been convinced for three months that Castro is gravely ill with inoperable cancer.

Questions abound about what comes after Castro.

In the immediate future, the Cuban government could decide to hold a large state funeral and welcome an international contingent to Havana. But Latell thinks that probably will not happen. "They will be concerned about maintaining security," he said.

Because of the current transition to Raul Castro, unrest among the Cuban population is considered unlikely. "I have not seen one credible report about riots or demonstrations ... not one credible challenge to the succession," Latell said.

Nevertheless, the U.S. government is preparing for a range of scenarios. For instance, the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command is working with the Coast Guard and Homeland Security Department on training and planning to minimize the impact of any mass migration out of Cuba.

"We are not expecting a mass migration, but are ready for that possibility," said Jose Ruiz, a Southern Command spokesman.

The United States has long wanted to see an end of Communist rule in Cuba.

During an interview on Fox News last week, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the goal is to have Cuba hold democratic elections.

"When there is a transition, whenever that comes, it has to be the goal of the United States and the goal of the international community to insist that the Cuban people get to make a choice," she said.

Cuba has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world, but also a faltering economy. The CIA reports that the average Cuban's standard of living remains lower than before an economic downturn of the 1990s, caused by the loss of $4 billion to $6 billion each year in Soviet aid and domestic inefficiencies.

Cuba relies heavily on foreign support, including some $2 billion (euro1.55 billion) per year from Venezuela.

That predicament has some observers hoping that Raul Castro will usher in economic changes that could open up the country, even if he is not ready to embrace a democratic overhaul. Like communist China, Cuba could decide to become increasingly open to trade.

In the interview, Perez Roque would not explicitly reject the possibility of some opening of the island's economy and acknowledged Cuban "errors" and "insufficiencies."

"Does our economy require that we make decisions to change some things, to fix what is wrong? Yes," he said. "And it can be done, in the right moment."

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On the Net:

State Department background on Cuba:

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2886.htm

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Posted on Mon, Nov. 13, 2006

Castro has 18 months to live, U.S. believes
BY PABLO BACHELET
pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

WASHINGTON - The U.S. government believes that Cuban leader Fidel Castro has terminal cancer and has less than 18 months to live, government officials say.

The information is not based on insider reports but rather on publicly available materials such as videos and still photographs of Castro released by the communist government, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The officials said the government is convinced that Castro suffers from terminal cancer but does not know what type of cancer or what part of his body it is affecting. It was not clear when the 18-month period began or ends.

On July 31, Castro handed most of his powers to his brother Raúl Castro after undergoing intestinal surgery for a still undisclosed ailment. Castro has never flatly denied earlier reports that he suffers from cancer.

Since then, the Cuban government has periodically released videotapes and photographs of the 80-year-old Castro, including Oct. 28 footage that showed him pointing to media reports published that day to deny widespread speculation that he had died.

DECLINING HEALTH

The several sets of photos of Fidel Castro released by the Cuban government have shown him in what appears to be progressively worsening health. His speech seems weak and slow, and the one video of him walking shows him taking wide, faltering steps.

The U.S. officials cite the Cuban leader's own report about six weeks ago that he had lost 41 pounds as a ''wasting'' of muscle tissue -- a telltale sign of cancer.

Several of the more recent photographs have shown him wearing an oversize track suit in Cuba's red, white and blue colors -- and one showed a bulge on his left hip in an indication that he may have been fitted with a colostomy bag.

The latest video, released a month after his previous photographs, showed him chatting on the phone and swinging his arms in a stand-up exercise. He has retained his beard and head hair, apparently indicating that he has not undergone the type of chemotherapy that would make his hair fall out.

But Castro repeated for the camera his earlier comments that his recovery would be ''prolonged and not exempt of risk'' and ominously added that he had ``no fear of what might happen.''

He mocked reports that he had died.

''Now let's see what they say. Now they'll have to resuscitate me, huh?'' Castro said in the video. ``They're making fools of themselves.''

Other governments also believe that Castro has cancer. The Miami Herald recently reported that one Latin American intelligence agency believes Castro has cancer and that doctors were keeping his public appearances to a minimum to reduce any chances of infection.

But U.S. officials apparently do not know the exact nature of Castro's cancer. The Associated Press, citing U.S. and Defense Department officials, reported Sunday that the Cuban leader has cancer of the stomach, pancreas or colon.

The report says the U.S. officials believe Castro may not last through 2007, and would live up to 18 months if he undergoes chemotherapy, and three to eight months without it.

GUARDED PREDICTIONS

Periodically, Cuban officials issue reassuring statements about Castro, although the recent pronouncements have become more guarded.

Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, in an interview with the AP last week, backed away from earlier predictions that Castro would make his first public appearance on Dec. 2 -- a delayed celebration of his Aug. 13 birthday.

According to a Radio Havana report Saturday, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcón said Castro ''is well'' and ``complying in a disciplined manner with his recovery program.''

But Alarcón also said Castro's appearance on Dec. 2 ``will be conditioned to the judgment of the physicians who elaborated his recovery program.''

Raúl Castro has made few public appearances but has given indications that he will take a different track as leader than Fidel. His speeches have stressed worker productivity and corruption issues rather than echoing his brother's denunciations of U.S. imperialism, and his government has announced a plan to study flaws in the communist system.

In public, U.S. government officials have declined to comment on Castro's health, although State Department officials have said they believe he will never again exercise the maximum power he once held.

One U.S. government official said there was a ''slow-motion'' succession already under way in Cuba, with Raúl Castro at the helm, but did not elaborate.

Castro's last public statement was Tuesday, when he congratulated Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega -- a close ally -- for his victory in Nicaragua's presidential election.

Miami Herald translator Renato Pérez contributed to this report.

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Castro said recovering, return to power expected

HAVANA, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro is recovering and expected to return to power, but he may not be well enough to attend his 80th birthday celebration on Dec. 2, the head of Cuba's National Assembly said on Friday.

"I know he's doing well, that he continues to recover, fulfilling his rehabilitation program with discipline," Ricardo Alarcon told reporters at a journalism conference in the Cuban capital.

"I am sure that process will go on in the proper way to having him fully back," said Alarcon, one of Castro's closest advisers.

Castro has been out of power and public view except for photos and videos since intestinal surgery for an undisclosed illness 3-1/2 months ago forced him to temporarily put his brother Raul in charge.

A video released Oct. 28 showed Castro looking so aged and gaunt that it raised questions about how well he was doing.

He is expected to make his first public appearance at the Dec. 2 event, which will mark both his birthday and the 50th anniversary of the start of the revolution that put him in power in 1959.

But Alarcon, like other Cuban officials of late, held open the possibility he may not make it.

"It's in his hands, but it depends on the judgment of his doctors," he said.

Castro turned 80 on Aug. 13, but was not well enough for a celebration, so it was postponed to Dec. 2.

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Cuba's Castro Strictly Following Doctors' Orders: Official

10 November 2006

HAVANA (AP)--Fidel Castro, who is recovering from intestinal surgery, is strictly following doctor's orders, Cuba's parliament speaker Ricardo Alarcon said Friday.

"I know he is doing well, and that he continues recovering while carrying out his rehabilitation program with discipline," Alarcon told reporters.

The Cuban official couldn't confirm whether Castro, who temporarily ceded power to his younger brother Raul in late July, would attend Dec. 2 festivities in honor of his 80th birthday. Castro turned 80 on Aug. 13, but his birthday celebration was postponed to give him time to recover.

"I imagine he'll be invited and if he considers it appropriate, depending on his rehabilitation program, perhaps he'll decide to go," Alarcon said.

In addition to the official Dec. 2 event, international artists and intellectuals are also planning to fete Castro at a series of Havana events beginning Nov. 28. An art exposition, a concert with leading artists from Cuba, Argentina and South Africa, and an academic conference called "Memory and Future: Cuba and Fidel" are among the planned activities. [ 10-11-06 2325GMT ]

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Young Cubans yearn for more material comforts, less propaganda

By VANESSA ARRINGTON

Associated Press Writer

11 November 2006

HAVANA (AP) - Cuba says Fidel Castro's revolution will last forever.

But the aging cadre of leaders who devoted their lives to building a communist utopia on this Caribbean island must eventually turn things over to new generations -- and Cuba's young people don't seem to share their revolutionary zeal.

There is a profound disconnect between the world of this younger generation and the ideology they see in state media. After 47 years of rule by Fidel, many youths say that they are tired of politics, and that the official rhetoric doesn't match their reality.

They dream of less propaganda and more material comforts.

"We really hope things get better -- it can't be like this forever," Israel Cuesta, 24, said of the country's economic situation.

Whether the handful of leaders filling in for the ailing 80-year-old Castro can surmount this apathy is among many questions facing Cuba.

Many young Cubans certainly embrace the current system, actively participating in the Communist Youth Union and responding to efforts by the government to nurture a new generation of leaders.

But others resist the formula. Free speech limits are among their sore points. Restricted Internet access generally is only available through government centers and universities, and Cubans risk fines and confiscation of equipment if they wire up illegal satellite dishes to watch MTV or CNN.

"I feel blind, and manipulated," said a 30-year-old who would identify himself only as Luis for fear of losing his job at a state-run art institute.

Cuba's focus on social equality and autonomy from the U.S. remains genuinely popular among youths. They appreciate the safety net that prevents most Cubans from going hungry or becoming homeless, as well as a sociable environment where strangers constantly interact and help each other. And they've inherited their parents' and grandparents' deep pride in being Cuban.

But what they want most seems to be change.

"I want more technology, to be somewhere that feels more advanced," said Tony, a 20-year-old music producer with long, gelled hair and a black leather bracelet with studs.

Like many young Cubans, he wouldn't reveal his last name, fearing retribution for speaking candidly. "I want to open my mind," he said.

While the elderly generation equates Castro's revolution with opportunity, younger people feel they lack options -- and can't see how they will be able to make enough money to live well.

Younger Cubans can go to college for free, get full health care coverage and listen to world-class music concerts at tiny cost. But they also have little chance of renting or buying their own apartments, getting a car, or making more than $15 a month.

Cuesta, a dishwasher at a fancy Havana tourist hotel, vividly remembers the dramatic poverty of the island's "special period" in the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union and end to its subsidies plunged Cuba into economic crisis.

Bicycles replaced cars and Cubans became increasingly skinny as gasoline and food started to disappear. Salaries lost their value overnight. Power blackouts up to 16 hours a day were common.

"There was nothing," Cuesta said. "A lot of people just started falling apart financially. They were no longer the same."

The period translated into a "frustration of expectations" for Cuba's young people, said Damian Fernandez, a Cuban-American who heads the Cuban Research Institute at Miami's Florida International University. "The economic shortage, and that closure of opportunity, have clearly scarred this generation."

Cuesta said things are improving, but many of his friends have left Cuba anyway. "They want to acquire more things that are hard to come by here: like a color television, a DVD," he said.

Those fleeing reflect Cuba's generational split -- 28 percent of the 2,150 Cubans repatriated in 2005 after being intercepted at sea were under 25 and the majority were aged 25-45, according to the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. Just 6 percent were older than 45.

"We all want to go to La Yuma," said 15-year-old Eduardo, using Cuban slang for the United States. "It's better there," he said, citing everything from higher pay to more amusement parks.

Younger Cubans have been increasingly exposed to the world's material cultures and alternative lifestyles since Cuba begrudgingly opened its doors to foreign tourists to pull the island out of its 1990s slump. Economic divisions also deepened on the island of 11 million people as tourism replaced sugar as Cuba's primary source of foreign income.

Now, while poorer youths play guitar near the Malecon seawall and dance reggaeton for hours in parks, others wear brand-name clothes and go to trendy music parties costing $5 -- a third of the average monthly salary. These "Mickies" -- a play on Mickey Mouse and superficiality -- may be part of Cuba's small privileged class, or get money from foreigners or Cuban-American relatives.

More "alternative" groups gather on city streets or in nightclubs that charge $1. Their style includes mohawks, tattoos and body piercing, though plenty of expensive American sneakers and even a sleeveless David Beckham soccer jersey were seen recently at a basement techno music spot.

"Here you can really disconnect from all the pressure outside," said Luis, who has eyebrow piercings and bleached blond hair swooped up in a spike. "There's a lot of tolerance here in this basement."

Luis said he frequently gets harassed by police, but he also acknowledged that his rebellious peers can gather openly -- a real change from decades past when long hair brought public rebukes and Cubans were sent to labor camps for being gay.

Still, Cuba has a long way to go, he said.

"We want freedom of expression, freedom to do what we want," he said. "And we want dollars."

Those dollars often come illegally, through working under the table and "jineterismo" -- a Cuban term that translates as jockeying but can mean everything from getting a foreigner to buy you lunch to sleeping with one for money or gifts.

Prostitution and the exodus of young people concern the revolution's aging "true believers."

"They want whatever they feel they can't get here -- if they have five, they want 10," said Reinalda Diaz Rojas, 83. "Old people, well we're more content with what we have. And we feel we have our country to thank."

Those who remember life under dictator Fulgencio Batista have more vivid fears about a return to capitalism. Diaz Rojas, a woman from a coastal village, credits Castro for opening doors that were closed before the 1959 revolution, allowing her to study in the capital and become a schoolteacher.

Many middle-age Cubans also hold faith in the current government model, partly because they experienced how good life could be in the 1980s when wages were more than sufficient under the rich support of the Soviet Union.

With Castro sidelined by illness, the possibility of change is in the air. Young Cubans say they hope the current collective leadership led by Castro's brother Raul will bring fewer rules and a more vibrant economy.

Those who want to stay on the island say they would be happy with even minor improvements.

"We just want to be more free," said Yoansy Herbaz, 21.

"And," he added with a smile, "for prices for the discotheques to go down."

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OPINION

Cuba won't abandon socialism just yet

Paolo Spadoni

13 November 2006

The Christian Science Monitor

Has Cuba finally realized that its socialist economic system suffers from serious flaws, and even more important, that substantial market- oriented reforms are needed to overcome such flaws?

Last month, Cuba's Communist Youth newspaper, Juventud Rebelde, ran a three-part story on illegalities in the Cuban society that disclosed the results of an investigation by its undercover reporters into state businesses in the capital, Havana. The overall picture was one of rampant theft, widespread fraudulent practices, and extreme inefficiency in most retail stores and services of the Cuban capital.

The newspaper also revealed that a local team of academic specialists would begin studying the issue of "socialist property" in Cuba in search of ways to improve the current economic model.

The latest debate within Cuba about the problems of socialism has sparked optimism among some US experts. They now expect major changes on the island that would result in the adoption of market reforms, rather than the usual calls by the Castro regime for more discipline and control.

This view is mainly justified by the fact that the Cuban debate is fueling criticism of the entire economic system. This criticism has been almost certainly approved at the highest levels of government. Interestingly, while Juventud Rebelde stopped short of advocating privatization, a Reuters dispatch noted that "some Cuban intellectuals say it would be the best way, even in the form of collective private property, to improve the retail sector."

However, there are reasons to believe that the aforementioned optimism remains largely unfounded under the current conditions.

Here's why.

Since Fidel Castro introduced the socialist system into Cuba almost 50 years ago, the economic policies pursued by his government have exhibited several shifts away from and toward the market.

A reduced emphasis on the role of the state and pragmatic acceptance of market reforms generally occurred in the wake of economic crises or sluggish growth, when the government temporarily put aside its commitment to state control, equality, and moral incentives in favor of liberalizing measures aimed to boost the economy.

But today, the island's economy is in better shape than it has been in years. So why would Cuba support market reforms that would mean a loss of control for the government, and generate social effects such as growing income inequality deemed unacceptable by its leadership?

In effect, Cuba has been moving exactly in the opposite direction in recent years. Havana's authorities have rolled back some of the timid capitalist-style reforms that they had implemented between 1993 and 1994 to ensure the survival of a system that was then on the verge of collapse.

They have also stepped up state control over all enterprises, including the tiny group of licensed private entrepreneurs running businesses, such as room rentals, home-based restaurants and cafeterias, appliance repair shops, and beauty salons.

The number of private workers, which peaked at 209,000 in 1996, has now dropped below 140,000, indicating the government's uneasiness at leaving even minor services to individual initiative.

Finally, problems of theft, waste, and petty corruption in Cuba are nothing new, as the title of the Juventud Rebelde story, "The Old Big Swindle," clearly suggested. What has really changed is the scope and intensity of Havana's response to such practices in the context of robust economic growth, greater availability of financial means for state investment, and increased search for efficiency.

The drive against economic crime, one of the elements of the "battle of ideas" launched by Mr. Castro in 2000, has gathered pace since late 2005 when Castro himself recognized the urgent need to tackle the threat to Cuba's socialism from vice and the pilfering of state resources by adopting the necessary countermeasures.

What are these countermeasures? As usual, they involve more discipline and state control.

During the past year, Cuban officials have recruited and trained thousands of inspectors to detect "irregularities" in both the public and private sectors. And on Oct. 25, only three days after the last part of the Juventud Rebelde story was published, the Communist Party newspaper, Granma, announced that new rules for all state enterprises "aimed to strengthen order, educate the workers, and deal with lack of discipline and illegalities in the performance of labor" will take effect in January 2007.

Cuban academic specialists have yet to complete their study of what is wrong with the island's socialist system. The Castro government, however, has already decided what to do about it.

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Cuban dissident tries to rally support for release of political prisoners

By VANESSA ARRINGTON

9 November 2006

HAVANA (AP) - Cuba's best-known dissident on Thursday urged member nations of the U.N. Human Rights Council to demand the release of all Cuba's political prisoners, a day after the world body's General Assembly voted against a similar measure.

Oswaldo Paya, whose signature drive for democracy in 2002 gained him international attention and prompted the government to declare socialism in Cuba "irrevocable," said he was lodging letters urging the motion at several Havana embassies for countries on the 47-nation Human Rights Council.

"It's scandalous that this is not a scandal," he said of Cuba's imprisonment of political activists.

Rights groups say more than 300 political activists are imprisoned in Cuba. The Cuban government denies holding prisoners of conscience, calling them common criminals or U.S.-backed "mercenaries" seekign to topple Fidel Castro's system.

On Wednesday, the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to urge the United States to end its 45-year-old trade embargo against the communist government. But it voted down an Australian amendment calling on Cuba to free political prisoners and respect human rights.

Paya said his Christian Liberation Movement is against the trade embargo, and glad the world is pressuring the United States to lift it. But just as important for Cubans, he said, are freedom of expression and the right to choose their political and economic systems.

"They are denying Cubans the right to have rights," he said of countries who fail to recognize this need. "We need international solidarity, and moral support."

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Two Swiss banks end Cuba dealings

Credit Suisse and UBS say they are no longer doing business with Caribbean nation.

November 12 2006: 4:47 PM EST

ZURICH, Switzerland (Reuters) -- Swiss banks Credit Suisse and UBS said they have severed relations with Cuba and are not conducting any business dealings with the country.

UBS (Charts) said it had not had any dealings with Cuba since 2005 while Credit Suisse (Charts) said it adopted a similar policy at the start of the year but would consider handling non-dollar payments although this was difficult

"UBS does not maintain any relations with Cuba-domiciled individuals and also UBS does not execute any payments to Cuba. The policy, which was instituted in 2005, concerns a number of sensitive countries, including North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Sudan," a spokesman for UBS said.

Rival bank Credit Suisse said it had also decided not to enter into new business with sensitive countries since the start of the year.

"We do not do payments in U.S. dollars but payments in other currencies are possible if we can find a correspondent bank. But this is very difficult," a spokesman for Credit Suisse said, referring to Cuba.

In October, Cuba's communist government said that U.S. trade sanctions over the last year had cost the country $4.1 billion in higher financial and shipping costs, lost business and canceled contracts.

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Cuba applauds Democratic victories in U.S. elections

9 November 2006

HAVANA (AP) - Cuba Thursday applauded the Democratic victories in the U.S. elections as a rebuke of President George W. Bush's policies.

Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque said on a state-run news program devoted to the election results that the Democratic victories in Congress and governorships amounted to an "indisputable defeat" of the "ultraconservative" politics of Bush and his allies.

"This victory shows that diverse sectors (in the United States) have woken up," Perez Roque said on the "Mesa Redonda" program, which is televised daily across Cuba.

The foreign minister, however, also said that he didn't expect much to change in global politics as long as Bush remains in power.

Perez Roque just returned to Cuba after presenting a resolution this week at the United Nations to condemn the U.S. trade embargo against the communist-run island. The world body's General Assembly voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to urge the United States to end the 45-year-old policy.

"Yesterday's victory is proof ... that our resistance has not been in vain," he said Thursday.

The vote on the embargo came after the assembly defeated an Australian amendment to the resolution calling on Cuba to free political prisoners and respect human rights.

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Cuba gloats over U.N. vote, U.S. Republican losses

HAVANA, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Cuban government gloated on Thursday about the latest United Nations vote to end a long-running U.S. trade embargo and was equally pleased by the heavy Republican losses in America's congressional elections.

Both events, along with Tuesday's election of leftist Daniel Ortega as president of Nicaragua, were viewed as a major slap in the face for U.S. President George W. Bush.

"183 against 1," blared a headline in the state-controlled newspaper Granma, referring to the 183 countries that voted for a U.N. resolution on Wednesday calling for the U.S. to drop the four-decades-old trade embargo against Cuba.

It added a much smaller "+3" after the "1" for the three other U.N. members -- Israel, Marshall Islands and Palau -- that voted with the United States against the resolution.

The U.N. resolution has been passed each year for the past 15 years, but the United States is not bound by it and has ignored it. In fact, the Bush administration has tightened the embargo, which has earned the enmity of the Cuban government.

Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, appearing on state-run television, called the U.N. vote a "tremendous victory" and said it showed the weakness of the U.S. government's "moral authority."

"It has to be very tough for the American diplomats," he said. "Imagine the loneliness of this defeat."

Perez Roque said Ortega's election win in Nicaragua was also a big loss for the Bush administration because it had worked to defeat him.

In the U.S. election, Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, which will make it difficult for Republican Bush to push through his political agenda in his remaining two years in office.

"This victory by the Democrats signifies a powerful defeat for Bush and the group of ultra-conservatives in power with him," Perez Roque said. "It signifies that the American people are realizing how they have been lying to them."

"(Cuban President) Fidel (Castro) has always said that to get the American people to support an unjust cause you have deceive them," he said.

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Cuba steps up campaign against unprecedented corruption

By Jose Luis Paniagua.

Havana, Nov 10 (EFE).- Cuban authorities have intensified the campaign against corruption launched a year ago by Fidel Castro and pursued by younger brother Raul Castro since becoming the island's "provisional" president in July.

The official daily Granma published news Friday of a new case of fuel theft from a state-run company that operates heavy machinery, along with specifics of the punishment being meted out to those responsible.

Bohemia magazine also reported this week that 11 people, some of them directors of the giant state holding company CIMEX, were sentenced to between four and 20 years for fraud and corrupton.

Such reports by the official media - independent news outlets are not tolerated - have made irregularities like these a constant part of the daily news since Nov. 17, 2005.

At that time, Fidel Castro in a landmark speech promised war "without truce" against this scourge. "Either we conquer the problem or we die. This is serious and the people are going to hear about it," the revolutionary leader said.

Raul Castro, provisional president since July 31 when an ailing Fidel delegated his duties to him, has taken up the battle, as he made clear to workers at the September congress of the country's only legal labor union and by his choice of new Cabinet ministers.

At the September congress, Raul Castro tried to inspire the workers to feel that they are the "owners of the collective means of production" and said that employees and union members "cannot be exonerated from their great responsibility" of assuring efficiency all along the chain of production.

He also named Ramiro Valdes, a historic figure of the revolution, to head the Information Technology and Communications Ministry, and chose Jorge Luis Sierra, a member of the Communist Party Politburo, to lead the Transport Ministry, with the aim of improving performance at both positions.

Reports of theft of fuel, materials and medicines, as well as irregularities in the customs and postal services, at markets for agricultural products, and even in big state-owned enterprises have increased day by day, but have intensified as never before over the past few months.

On Oct. 1 it was reported that "problems" had been found in 11,692 of the 22,692 inspections carried out in state-run centers for goods and services between January and August.

These complaints plus some warning examples of the punishment in store for the wrongdoers showed that the campaign was directed at every level of power, from company management to the Cuban Communist Party.

In an unprecedented action, the Cuban judiciary sentenced an erstwhile Politburo member, Juan Carlos Robinson, to 12 years in jail.

As for the workers, the state-run labor federation made effective as of next January an Internal Disciplinary Regulation that outlines obligations and prohibitions intended to "strengthen labor discipline and improved the efficiency, productivity and quality of services."

In this context, analyses of the reasons why the last remaining Communist country in the west has ended up plagued with widespread robbery in state institutions has also been covered extensively.

Last month a call to initiate a project investigating the "state of socialism" was sounded in an article published in Juventud Rebelde in which several economists gave their opinions on the subject.

The treatment of topics such as production problems, salary levels (which on the average are about $12 a month), the bureaucracy, and the excuse of blaming certain vices on the "special period," as the Castro government described the years of austerity following the loss of subsidies from the former Soviet Union, appeared an attempt to analyze the situation in depth.

CIMEX President Eduardo Bencomo, whom EFE unsuccessfully tried to contact, admitted to Bohemia that such phenomena "don't appear from one day to the next" and that "there are those who keep their values when not exposed to risks but faced with temptation start to cave in." EFE jlp/cd

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Businesses Look at Castro's Cuba, and Wonder

10 November 2006

NPR: All Things Considered

MELISSA BLOCK, host:

From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Melissa Block.

It has been three months since Cuban president Fidel Castro turned power over to his brother, Raul, and since then there's been a lot of speculation. Will Fidel be back? And if not, will Raul be able to hold the regime together? All the uncertainty has a variety of business people wondering if Cuba will soon become a major economic opportunity.

In part two of his series on Cuba, NPR's Adam Davidson has the story of a man who has seen it all before and says U.S.-Cuba trade will not come easy.

ADAM DAVIDSON: John Kavulich has a dream. Well, he used to. He had this fantasy about how great things would be in Cuba one day.

Mr. JOHN KAVULICH (U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council): During those magical moments, I absolutely viewed arriving on an American Airlines jetliner and staying at a Marriot going to eat at a TGI Friday’s and picking up some products at Home Depot.

DAVIDSON: Now sure, this is not everyone's dream, to turn Havana into a strip mall just like the ones you find off the New Jersey turnpike.

Mr. KAVULICH: Or I-95. An extension of I-95 right from Key West and just keep going.

DAVIDSON: Kavulich was not the only person who wanted to bring American business to Cuba. He was just their leader, the head of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. He had a lot of members.

Mr. KAVULICH: From Wal-Mart to General Motors to Eli Lilly to Archer Daniel's Midland Company, Tyson's Food to Riceland Foods.

DAVIDSON: The corporate optimism was strong in the mid-90s, up until roughly 9/11, 2001. It was easy to believe back then that Cuba was about to open. Fidel Castro lost the lifeline of Soviet aid and decided to allow at least some foreign companies to set up shop. President Clinton hinted he might drop the embargo. And Kavulich was at the center of all this excitement. He thought just maybe he'd be the guy who would bring Cuba and the U.S. together. There would be regular diplomatic relations, a new U.S. ambassador in Havana.

Did you ever fantasize that maybe you'd be the first ambassador?

Mr. KAVULICH: I absolutely did. Absolutely.

DAVIDSON: You did, really?

Mr. KAVULICH: Especially when I'd go down and visit with the head of the U.S. Interest Section in his office on the top floor of what was our U.S. embassy and be looking out along the Malecon, and sure I can envision my nameplate on that door and people calling me Mr. Ambassador.

DAVIDSON: Kavulich says the business case is obvious. Cuba has more than 11 million potential customers. Sure, they're poor. But he says once communism gives way to capitalism, the Cuban economy will take off like China's or Poland's.

There really were days, a lot of them, when it seemed like everything was lined up. The Americans were ready. The Cubans were ready.

Mr. KAVULICH: And then the Cuban government would do something or say something, whether it be arrest dissidents or shoot down some planes, and with the U.S. governments it was just tiresome. And that was the frustrating – I'd go from these Mount Everest and K2 like peaks to these Death Valley valleys.

DAVIDSON: It's been nothing but Death Valley for five years now, Kavulich says. There is no optimism about U.S.-Cuba relations. Cuba has been getting help from Venezuela, so Fidel has cut back on private sector reforms. And Cuba's new friendship with Venezuela has just pushed the U.S. further away.

President Bush has taken a firm anti-Castro stance. He's not going to open the doors. That's why Kavulich says he's all but finished. Five years ago he was working 12 hour days, 7 days a week. Now he might spend an hour a day looking at Cuba stories on the Internet, maybe taking a call or two.

Mr. KAVULICH: I got a telephone call from a senior executive of a substantial U.S. healthcare product company the morning that it was announced President Castro was ill. And he said, you know, John, what should we be doing? And my answer was, Nothing. Go back to your office and keep the news on if you'd like, but do not fuel up a jet. Do not constitute a Cuban team. Nothing.

And so he went back to his office.

DAVIDSON: There are American business people who do have Cuba plans. Cuban- Americans, especially those who belong to the Cuban American National Foundation, whose headquarters is in a small office building in Miami.

Mr. ALFREDO MESA (Cuban American National Foundation): You'll have here tomorrow well over 60 people.

Ms. CARMELLA RUIZ (Cuban American National Foundation): Yeah.

DAVIDSON: So they won't fit in this room.

Ms. RUIZ: Well, no. They put chairs back here.

Mr. MESA: Chairs all the way around. That table there.

Ms. RUIZ: Small tables that we put over here.

DAVIDSON: The foundation is probably the capitol of the anti-Castro community in Florida. Alfredo Mesa runs it. Carmella Ruiz is in charge of government relations. They say the Cuban economy is so broken, it needs everything. But no worry. Miami's Cuban Americans are ready. They've got everything covered.

Ms. RUIA: Insurance companies -

Mr. MESA: Real estate, restaurateurs, textiles -

Ms. RUIZ: Construction companies -

Mr. MESA: Infrastructure, contractors -

Mr. DAVIDSON: The list is endless. It goes on.

Ms. RUIZ: Law -

Mr. MESA: Investment bankers, developers -

Mr. DAVIDSON: And on -

Mr. MESA: Commercial. How much time do you have?

Mr. DAVIDSON: But, they say, none of these Cuban American business people are willing to work with Cuba until the Castro regime collapses. And with Fidel's brother Raul now firmly in power, it doesn't look like the regime is going away anytime soon.

And of course, aside from a few farmers, the rest of American business isn't interested in pursuing Cuba trade now. So even if Cuba is going through its biggest transition in nearly 50 years, U.S.-Cuban business ties seem as far away as ever.

Adam Davidson, NPR News.

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Untangling the Complexities of Trade with Cuba

11 November 2006

NPR: Weekend All Things Considered

JACKI LYDEN, host:

And now to Cuba. You've heard of the U.S. embargo against Cuba, so you might think it's illegal for any U.S. company to sell anything to Cuba. That's not true. There actually are lots of exceptions to the law, and American companies ship things, primarily agricultural products, to the island nation all the time. Still, the sailing for those who want to trade is far from smooth.

In the final installment of his three-part series on Cuba, NPR's Adam Davidson explains why.

ADAM DAVIDSON: A big squat ship, the Crowley Universe, is basically a floating parking lot. It's being loaded with about a hundred tractor-trailers, most of them carrying frozen chickens. It's getting ready for its weekly Wednesday run to Havana out of a port in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Jay Brickman runs the Cuba business for Crowley Maritime, and he says he wishes Crowley could send a lot more than just one ship a week to Cuba. Their main business is the Caribbean and the biggest thing in the Caribbean by far is Cuba.

Mr. JAY BRICKMAN (Crowley Maritime Corporation): We have on any given day, say, three or four ships that go right in front of Cuba.

DAVIDSON: On most of your ru